Nillion/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Summary (2025-11-08)

Summary
• Price action on NILUSDT shows a bearish consolidation after a failed breakout.
• Volatility remains elevated, with volume peaking during key resistance tests.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum, pointing to potential oversold conditions.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.1904 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1947 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of 0.2036 and a low of 0.1881. Total traded volume amounted to 7.02 million contracts, while notional turnover reached $1.35 million (based on volume and average price).

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a bearish consolidation pattern, with price failing to hold above key resistance at 0.2007, triggering a pullback. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:00 ET (0.2033 to 0.1994). Later, a bearish inside bar at 0.1993–0.1994 was followed by a sharp decline. A potential support level appears at 0.1905–0.1935, where price tested multiple times but lacked strong follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line sits around 0.1950, acting as a tentative near-term pivot. On the daily chart, a bearish crossover between 50 and 200-period MAs is in effect, suggesting a long-term downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 42 at 12:00 ET, signaling a moderate oversold condition but without a clear reversal pattern yet. Price could test RSI levels closer to 35 in the next 24 hours, which may trigger short-covering or a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Band channel for most of the session, with volatility expanding near the 0.2008–0.2036 highs. The upper band sat around 0.2025–0.2035, while the lower band hovered near 0.1900–0.1930. A break below the lower band could signal an acceleration in bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, coinciding with the failed breakout attempt above 0.2008. Notional turnover also rose during this time, confirming the bearish pressure. A divergence appeared later in the session, as volume dropped despite the price continuing lower, suggesting exhaustion and potential for a near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.1904–0.2036 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.1959. Price failed to hold this level and instead traded below the 50% retracement at 0.1970. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% level is at 0.1925, which could serve as a near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy evaluated the performance of a short-term trading approach using the 15-minute chart, with a 3-day holding period and no transaction costs. The aggregate return was negative at –1.20%, and the Sharpe ratio of –0.04 suggests poor risk-adjusted performance. Despite a win rate of 46%, losses were more impactful, indicating a lack of consistency. The backtest aligns with the bearish trend observed in NILUSDT, where short-term momentum failed to generate profit. A more robust filter—such as a stronger signal based on RSI divergence or volume confirmation—may improve outcomes.

The next 24 hours may see price testing 0.1905 as a critical support level. A breakdown below this could extend the decline toward 0.1881. However, bearish momentum appears to be weakening, as evidenced by RSI and volume patterns. Investors should monitor the 0.1930–0.1950 range for potential short-term bounces, but be cautious of the broader bearish trend.