Nike Stock Slumps 3.08% As Death Cross Signals Prolonged Downtrend

NIKE (NKE) Technical Analysis
NKE declined 3.08% to close at $59.99 in the latest session, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Below is a multi-indicator assessment of the stock’s technical posture.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a pronounced downtrend characterized by successive lower highs and lower lows. The June 17 candle closed near its low ($59.69) with a significant bearish body, indicating strong selling pressure. Key resistance is established at $62.18 (June 16 high), while critical support lies at $59.69 (current swing low). A break below this level could target the May 21 trough of $59.88, creating a potential double-bottom pattern.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($61.91, estimated) has crossed below both the 100-day ($63.85, estimated) and 200-day SMAs ($70.20, estimated), confirming a bearish "death cross" formation. The current price trades below all three SMAs, signaling sustained downward momentum. The widening gap between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs emphasizes strong intermediate-term bearishness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains negative, though its convergence suggests slowing bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator shows the K-line (15, estimated) and D-line (22, estimated) in oversold territory (<20), while the J-line nears 0. This alignment hints at a potential near-term rebound. However, without a bullish MACD crossover or KDJ upward inflection, reversal confirmation is lacking.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the June 13 sell-off (8.9% daily range), reflecting heightened volatility. The price currently hugs the lower band ($59.50, estimated), signaling oversold conditions. A contraction in band width alongside price stabilization could foreshadow a volatility squeeze and possible trend reversal.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days frequently exhibit elevated volume (e.g., 16.5M shares on June 13, 12.1M on June 17), confirming bearish conviction. The June 10 rally (+3.17% on 15.3M shares) lacked follow-through volume, suggesting weak bullish commitment. Volume divergence appears when prices rebound on subdued volume (e.g., June 16: +2.26% on 13.7M shares below the 20-day average), indicating unsustainable upside.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28, approximated) resides in oversold territory, nearing levels that historically preceded short-term rebounds. However, RSI has remained below 40 for ten consecutive sessions, underscoring entrenched bearish momentum. Traders should note RSI can linger in oversold zones during strong downtrends, making standalone signals unreliable.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the dominant downtrend from the June 2024 high ($97.18) to the June 2025 low ($59.69), key retracement levels are: 23.6% ($67.50), 38.2% ($74.25), and 61.8% ($84.15). Current prices trade below the 23.6% level, reinforcing bearish control. A recovery rally would likely face stiff resistance at $67.50 (aligning with the 50-day SMA) and $74.25 (confluent with the 200-day SMA).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence exists in oversold signals: RSI <30, price at Bollinger Lower Band, and KDJ extremes collectively suggest exhaustion. A bullish divergence emerges as MACD momentum moderates while price prints lower lows. However, this divergence lacks confirmation from volume or moving averages. Notably, resistance near $62.18 (recent high) aligns with the 50-day SMA, creating a critical technical barrier.
In summary, NKE exhibits entrenched bearish trends supported by moving averages, volume, and Fibonacci levels. While oversold conditions and indicator divergences suggest a near-term technical bounce, sustainability requires clearance of the $62.18 resistance and moving average reconvergence. Absent these developments, the path of least resistance remains downward.