Nike Stock Jumps 7.53% In Two Days After 15.19% Breakout Rally

NIKE (NKE) rose 4.06% on July 2, 2025, marking its second consecutive daily gain with a cumulative 7.53% advance over this period. This follows a notable 15.19% surge on June 27, which triggered the current bullish momentum.
Candlestick Theory
The dominant pattern is a bullish continuation signal, anchored by the June 27 marubozu candle (open: $69.69, close: $72.04) that broke through multiple resistance levels on exceptionally high volume (117.5M shares). The subsequent bullish candles solidified $70-$72 as new support, with resistance now established at the July 2 high of $76.84. The absence of long wicks in recent sessions suggests sustained buying pressure.
Moving Average Theory
Recent price action reclaimed all major moving averages: the 50-day ($70.15), 100-day ($68.80), and 200-day ($70.40) based on trailing calculations. The 50-day crossing above the 100-day in late June formed a golden cross, confirming bullish momentum acceleration. The current price trading 8.5% above the 200-day MA signals a strong intermediate uptrend, though this extended positioning warrants monitoring for potential mean reversion.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned positive on June 27 after a bullish crossover, with momentum intensifying as the histogram expanded to +1.15 by July 2. KDJ shows overbought conditions (K:82, D:78, J:90) – the highest levels since the April peak. While KDJ divergence is absent currently, such extreme readings typically precede short-term consolidation. MACD's sustained upward trajectory tempers overbought concerns for the intermediate trend.
Bollinger Bands
A pronounced band expansion occurred during the June 27 breakout, with the bandwidth increasing 45% within three sessions. Price has consistently hugged the upper band since, a characteristic of strong uptrends. The 20-day volatility surge (σ: 4.2% vs. 1.8% mid-June) indicates institutional participation. Mean reversion risk rises as the 3-day price/upper-band deviation reaches 1.5 standard deviations.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 27 breakout volume (117.5M shares) exceeded the 30-day average by 288%, validating the trend shift. Follow-through volume remained robust at 36.8M shares on July 2 (22% above average). Distribution days have been absent since the rebound, with volume contracting 23% during the June 30 consolidation – a healthy technical development. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) since June 26 sits at $70.58, serving as dynamic support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI accelerated from 31 (oversold) on June 26 to 68 currently. While nearing overbought territory (70+), no bearish divergence is evident. The RSI slope remains steep at +45 degrees, suggesting unexhausted momentum. Historically, NIKE's RSI has sustained >70 levels for 5-8 sessions during strong uptrends, implying room for further upside before typical consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the May 30 high ($76.40) and June 26 low ($60.82) as anchor points, key levels emerge. The 61.8% retracement at $70.60 aligned with the June 30 low ($70.06), where buyers emerged. The current price approaches the 78.6% resistance at $76.92 – within $0.53 of July 2's high. Bullish confirmation would require a daily close above $77. Beyond this, the 127.2% extension at $82.50 becomes the next target.