Nike Skyrockets 3.73%—Can This Bullish Surge Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Nike (NKE) surges 3.73% to $79.115, breaking above 200-day moving average of $70.83
• JPMorgan upgrades to 'overweight' with $93 price target, citing 20% annual EPS growth potential
• Options frenzy: $79 call (NKE20250801C79) sees 229% price surge, $80 call (NKE20250801C80) trades at 125% leverage

Nike’s dramatic 4% rally has shattered technical resistance and ignited options trading frenzy as JPMorgan’s bold upgrade redefines the stock’s narrative. With shares trading near five-month highs, the $79.115 level marks a critical juncture where technical momentum and fundamental optimism collide. This surge reflects both market validation of management’s turnaround strategy and speculative fervor in the options market.

JPMorgan’s Bullish Bet Ignites Retail Sentiment
Nike’s sharp 3.73% intraday rally stems directly from JPMorgan’s strategic upgrade to 'overweight' with a $93 price target—nearly 20% above current levels. Analyst Matthew Boss highlighted a '5-pronged recovery path' including inventory optimization, wholesale growth, and margin expansion through 2028. The upgrade coincided with Nike’s breakout above its 200-day moving average ($70.83), triggering algorithmic buying and retail momentum. The firm’s revised EPS forecasts for 2026-2027, coupled with fieldwork validation, have created a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders anticipate a re-rating of Nike’s 36.3x P/E multiple.

Apparel Sector Diverges as Under Armour Sinks 2.24%
While Nike’s apparel sector peers are underperforming, the divergence highlights Nike’s unique catalyst. Under Armour (UA) fell 2.24% despite Nike’s rally, underscoring sector-wide challenges versus stock-specific optimism. This dislocation suggests Nike’s move is driven by fundamental turnaround signals rather than broad sector rotation. The 52-week range of $52.28-$90.62 for NKE contrasts sharply with UA’s tighter $12.34-$21.45 range, emphasizing Nike’s structural differentiation in market perception.

Call Options and Momentum ETFs Position for Breakout
• 200-day average: $70.83 (below current price)
• RSI: 49.11 (neutral)
• MACD: 2.67 (bullish) with -0.06 histogram
• Bollinger Bands: $70.34 (lower) vs $77.68 (upper)

Nike’s technicals suggest a continuation pattern with support at $76.58 (200D range) and resistance at $79.99 (intraday high). The $79.115 level is crucial—breaking above $79.99 would validate a bullish reversal. Options liquidity is concentrated in August 2025 contracts, with the $79 call (NKE20250801C79) and $80 call (NKE20250801C80) offering compelling risk/reward ratios.

• NKE20250801C79 (Call, $79, Aug 1) –
- Implied Volatility: 28.14% (moderate)
- Lverage Ratio: 78.14% (high)
- Delta: 0.498 (positioned for moderate move)
- Theta: -0.2796 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1534 (price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $541,778 (high liquidity)
This contract offers amplified exposure to a continuation rally, with 229% price action already validating demand. If NKE closes above $79.99, intrinsic value becomes $0.995, delivering 126% return on strike price.

• NKE20250801C80 (Call, $80, Aug 1) –
- Implied Volatility: 29.01% (moderate)
- Lverage Ratio: 125.27% (high)
- Delta: 0.354 (mid-range sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2255 (controlled time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1388 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: $437,626 (liquid)
This contract provides leveraged exposure to a JPMorgan target-driven move, with 265% price action already demonstrating conviction. A $80.50 close would yield $0.50 intrinsic value, translating to 62.5% return on strike price.

Aggressive bulls should consider NKE20250801C79 into a break above $79.99, while NKE20250801C80 offers higher leverage for a sustained move toward $93.

Backtest NIKE Stock Performance
The backtest of Nike (NKE) following a 4% intraday increase shows poor performance, with a strategy return of -21.37% and an excess return of -110.11%. The strategy underperformed the benchmark significantly, and the Sharpe ratio was -0.14, indicating a high risk-adjusted return. The maximum drawdown was 0.00%, which suggests that the strategy had no room to risk further declines.

Act Now as Technical and Fundamental Catalysts Align
Nike’s confluence of technical breakout and JPMorgan’s bold EPS growth forecast creates a high-conviction trade. The $79.99 level is critical—holding above this would confirm a shift in sentiment, while a breakdown to $76.58 would invalidate the bullish case. With Under Armour (UA) down 2.24%, the sector’s underperformance underscores Nike’s unique turnaround narrative. Investors should prioritize the $79-80 call options for leveraged exposure, while monitoring inventory alignment and World Cup-driven demand as near-term catalysts. Position now before the August 1 expiration window tightens.