NIKE Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Views

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: NIKE's stock is under pressure with a technical score of 1.86 (internal diagnostic score), and bears dominate with a negative overall trend.

News Highlights

Recent news has focused on developments in the luxury sector, including new real estate and automotive ventures. Here’s what's catching attention:

• May 30, 2025 - Hyatt Launches Unscripted by Hyatt: The new brand targets travelers seeking authentic local experiences, which could reflect broader consumer trends toward experiential spending.
• May 29, 2025 - Washington State Imposes 10% Tax On Luxury Aircraft: The tax on noncommercial aircraft valued over $500,000 may ripple into the luxury goods and services sector, indirectly affecting high-end consumer behavior.
• May 31, 2025 - American Catholics Fuel Vatican Shift: While not directly related to NIKE, it highlights global shifts that could influence consumer sentiment in the luxury and lifestyle sectors.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst ratings remain split, with a simple average rating of 4.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 1.76. This suggests a disparity in expectations, with pessimistic views outweighing the optimism.

The price has fallen by -2.66% recently, aligning with the weighted expectations of analysts, but the overall rating consistency remains low, indicating a lack of consensus.

Key Fundamental Values:

• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 9.41% (model score: 3.0 on internal diagnostic scale)
• EBIT / Total Operating Revenue: 11.09% (model score: 3.0)
• Cash-UP: 0.99 (model score: 3.0)
• Long-term Debt to Working Capital Ratio: 0.92 (model score: 1.0)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money players are trending negatively, with large and extra-large investor flows showing negative patterns. In contrast, retail investors (small flows) are trending positively with an inflow ratio of 50.54%. This suggests a potential divergence between institutional and retail sentiment.

Key Technical Signals

NIKE's technical outlook is weak, with an overall internal diagnostic score of 1.86 (0-10). The only active indicator in recent days is WR Oversold, which has a neutral bias and a model score of 1.86.

• Recent WR Oversold Signals:
  • 2025-09-05
  • 2025-09-08
  • 2025-09-09
  • 2025-09-10
  • 2025-09-12
  This frequent repetition suggests weak momentum, with an average return of -0.62% and a 44.44% win rate.
• Key Insights: The technical indicators show a weak market state, with bearish signals dominating and no bullish indicators to counterbalance. The recent 5-day period has shown limited technical activity.

Conclusion

NIKE's stock appears to be in a weak technical phase with bearish indicators dominating. While retail investor sentiment is positive, institutional flows are pulling in the opposite direction. Given the low internal diagnostic score of 1.86 and the absence of bullish indicators, it may be wise to consider avoiding this stock for now or waiting for a potential reversal in the technical setup.