NIKE Outlook - Technical Weakness Looms Despite Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: NIKE is under pressure technically with an internal diagnostic score of 2.18 (0-10), as bearish signals dominate. Meanwhile, fundamentals are mixed with a score of 3.97 (0-10), and recent news remains neutral.

News Highlights

Recent Developments:

• 2025-05-31 - Hybrid Luxury Sedan from Huawei and JAC: The launch of the Maextro S800, a luxury sedan developed by Huawei and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile, signals growing interest in the luxury segment. While not directly related to NIKE, the luxury market trend could indirectly impact consumer spending in the retail space.
• 2025-05-30 - Washington State Imposes 10% Tax on Luxury Aircraft: The new 10% tax on aircraft valued over $500,000 may reflect a broader shift in luxury consumption regulation. This could hint at shifting consumer and investor behaviors towards more regulated or conservative spending areas.
• 2025-05-29 - Flywire Joins Luxury Travel Group Virtuoso: Flywire's inclusion in Virtuoso—a major luxury travel network—highlights continued momentum in the high-end travel sector. This could imply a potential cross-sector ripple effect for luxury brands, though NIKE's footwear and apparel business appears less directly affected.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have been relatively quiet in the last 20 days, with only one active rating from TD Cowen, which gave a Strong Buy on May 10, 2025. The analyst in question is John Kernan, who has a 33.3% historical win rate based on three previous predictions, averaging a 0.55% return for each. Despite the positive outlook, this is the only recent rating, indicating a lack of consensus.

Simple Average Rating: 5.00 (neutral)

Weighted Rating (based on historical performance): 2.31 (bearish)

These scores contrast with the current price trend, which has seen a 5.65% decline in the short term. This mismatch highlights a divergence between analyst optimism and recent market behavior.

Key Fundamental Values and Model Scores:

• Net profit margin on total assets: 11.64% (model score: 3.97)
• Cash-UP factor: 0.9925 (model score: 3.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (model score: 2.00)
• EV/EBIT: 33.69 (model score: 0.00)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth): -46.31% (model score: 1.00)

The combination of a high net profit margin and low EV/EBIT suggests strong profitability but poor valuation, indicating possible mispricing or investor skepticism.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing out. The fund-flow score is 7.65 (0-10), which is categorized as "good," but this reflects negative trends in large and extra-large blocks. Specifically:

• Small trend: positive
• Medium trend: negative
• Large trend: negative
• Extra-large trend: negative
• Overall inflow ratio: 47.60%
• Block inflow ratio: 47.08%

While small investors are still injecting capital, institutional investors are stepping back, which could exacerbate the downward trend in the near term.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook is weak. The key indicator WR Oversold has an internal diagnostic score of 2.18 (0-10). This score reflects the model's internal strength in identifying weak signals and potential risks, not the raw value of the indicator itself.

Recent chart activity (by date):

• 2025-09-10 - WR Oversold
• 2025-09-08 - WR Oversold
• 2025-09-09 - WR Oversold
• 2025-09-05 - WR Oversold
• 2025-09-03 - WR Oversold

The repeated appearance of this bearish signal indicates a lack of strength in the recent momentum. According to the model's key insights:

• Technical indicators show a weak market state with a 5.65% price decline.
• Bearish signals are dominant (1 vs 0 bullish).
• Recent technical signals are scarce, suggesting the market is in a lull before potential volatility.

Conclusion

NIKE is showing signs of technical weakness with a low score and no bullish momentum. While fundamentals are mixed and some analysts remain optimistic, the lack of large-cap support and weak price action suggest caution. Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer signs of momentum before entering long positions. Investors should also monitor earnings and potential market catalysts in the coming months for a possible reversal in sentiment.