Nigeria's headline inflation drops to 21.88% in July 2025, fourth monthly decline

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 21.88% in July 2025, down from 22.22% in June 2025, marking the fourth instance of disinflation in the year so far. This reduction was reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and reflects a broader trend of easing price pressures across the country [1]. The month-on-month inflation rate for July 2025 stood at 1.99%, a 0.31 percentage point increase from the 1.68% recorded in June [1].

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 125.9 in July 2025, an increase of 2.5 points from the 123.4 recorded in June. While the annual inflation rate remains elevated, it has significantly dropped from 33.40% in July 2024 to 21.88% in July 2025, a decline of 11.52 percentage points [1]. This suggests a slowing of inflationary pressures, which could signal improved macroeconomic stability in the country.

Food inflation, a key driver of overall inflation, also showed a marked decline. On a year-on-year basis, the food inflation rate in July 2025 stood at 22.74%, a drop of 16.79 percentage points from the 39.53% recorded the previous year [1]. This reduction is partly attributed to a change in the base year for the NBS calculations. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation fell to 3.12% in July 2025, down 0.14 percentage points from June [1]. The decline is attributed to lower average prices for several staples, including vegetable oil, rice, and maize flour.

Urban inflation in July 2025 was recorded at 22.01%, a 13.76 percentage point drop compared to 35.77% in July 2024 [1]. In rural areas, the inflation rate stood at 21.08%, down from 31.26% a year ago. However, rural areas experienced a 1.67 percentage point increase in the month-on-month rate compared to June [1].

The trend of disinflation has been consistent throughout 2025. After peaking at 24.48% in January, inflation dropped to 23.18% in February and continued to fall through April (23.71%), May (22.97%), and June (22.22%) before reaching 21.88% in July [1]. This suggests that the easing inflationary pressures are not just a one-off event but part of a broader economic adjustment.

At the state level, Borno recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate at 34.52%, while Yobe had the lowest at 11.43%. In terms of month-on-month changes, Borno saw the highest increase at 6.11%, followed by Zamfara (5.72%) and Kano (4.31%) [1]. The slowest changes were observed in Bauchi (0.26%), Katsina (0.30%), and Anambra (0.37%).

Food inflation disparities across states were also significant. Borno had the highest year-on-year food inflation at 55.56%, while Katsina recorded the lowest at 6.61%. On a month-on-month basis, Borno again led with a 10.89% increase in food inflation, followed by Kano (10.86%) and Sokoto (7.43%). Zamfara, Bauchi, and Abia saw declines in food inflation [1].

The data indicates that while inflation remains elevated compared to historical averages, the trajectory of disinflation is clear and consistent. The easing of headline inflation and food inflation suggests that efforts by policymakers to stabilize the economy may be gaining traction. The continued decline in food prices, in particular, could alleviate some of the burden on households, although challenges persist in high-inflation states and rural areas [1].

Source: [1] Nigeria’s inflation down to 21.88% in July 2025, from 22.22% in June

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