Niger’s Uranium Sector Under Siege: Geopolitical Risks and Investment Implications

The recent attack that killed twelve Nigerien soldiers and detained two suspects underscores the escalating instability in a region critical to global uranium supply. Niger, the world’s fourth-largest uranium producer, sits at the crossroads of geopolitical rivalry, militant violence, and economic fragility. For investors, this is more than a security alert—it’s a stark reminder of the risks and opportunities in one of Africa’s most resource-rich yet volatile markets.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Uncertainty

Niger’s military junta, which seized power in 2023, has clashed openly with France over control of uranium assets. In June 2024, the junta revoked French firm Orano’s permit to operate the Imouraren mine, a project holding 200,000 metric tons of uranium reserves. The move followed France’s refusal to recognize the junta, deepening diplomatic rifts. Meanwhile, Russia’s growing influence—evident in military deployments and Rosatom’s nuclear deals—has further destabilized the sector.

The junta’s pivot toward Russia and China has created a high-stakes competition. While Russia seeks to dominate Africa’s nuclear energy market, China secured a $400 million advance against future oil revenues in 2024. Yet, unverified reports of uranium-for-arms deals with Iran and Russia’s deployment of Wagner mercenaries near uranium-rich areas like Arlit amplify risks of resource nationalization or sabotage.

Security Threats to Production

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have expanded their reach, targeting military and economic infrastructure. In October 2023, an ISGS attack using suicide vehicles killed dozens of soldiers near uranium mining zones. Such assaults disrupt supply chains and deter foreign workers.

The Nigerien military’s stretched capacity—exacerbated by France’s 2024 troop withdrawal—has left mining sites vulnerable. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pro-Kremlin bloc, has failed to contain these threats. Analysts warn that militant groups could target uranium stockpiles, such as the 1,150 tonnes of unexported concentrate stranded after Orano’s suspension, to fund operations or destabilize the regime.

Economic Consequences and Investment Risks

Niger’s uranium sector, once a pillar of its economy, faces existential challenges. Production has plummeted from 2,991 metric tons in 2020 to an estimated 1,800 metric tons in 2024 due to sanctions, political turmoil, and militant activity. The junta’s erratic policies—such as revoking licenses and auditing foreign contracts—have alienated investors.

Western firms like Canadian-owned Global Atomic (Dasa mine) and GoviEx Uranium (Madaouela project) now face existential threats. A recent government ultimatum demanded GoviEx begin operations by early 2025 or lose its license. The company is scrambling to secure third-party funding, highlighting the precarious investment climate.

Opportunities in the Shadow of Risk

Despite the chaos, Niger’s uranium reserves remain a strategic asset. The global uranium market, driven by net-zero goals and energy security concerns, is bullish: prices have surged 40% since 2020. Countries like the U.S. and EU nations, seeking alternatives to Russian supply, could turn to Niger.

However, opportunities are limited to those willing to navigate extreme risks. State-owned firms from Russia or China—accustomed to operating in high-risk environments—may dominate. For example, China National Uranium Corporation is exploring the dormant Azelik mine, while Rosatom’s potential entry into Imouraren could reshape the sector.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Frontier

Niger’s uranium sector is a microcosm of the Sahel’s broader crisis—a region where geopolitical rivalry, militant violence, and economic collapse collide. Investors must weigh the strategic importance of Niger’s 5% share of global uranium supply against staggering risks:

• Geopolitical Uncertainty: France’s sanctions, Russian military presence, and the AES’s pro-Kremlin stance create a volatile policy environment.
• Security Threats: Militant groups control 20% of Niger’s territory, with suicide attacks and SVBIEDs increasingly targeting infrastructure.
• Economic Collapse: Niger’s GDP growth has collapsed from 3.5% (2020) to -1.2% (2024), with 54% of its population in extreme poverty.

For now, the sector’s instability favors only the most risk-tolerant players. While global uranium demand is surging, the path to profit in Niger runs through minefields—literal and figurative. Investors would be wise to proceed with caution, backed by rigorous geopolitical analysis and contingency plans.

Data sources: Niger Ministry of Mines, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), U.S. Geological Survey, and World Bank reports.