NFPrompt/Bitcoin Market Overview (24-Hour)

• Price declined sharply from $490,000 to $240,000 before stabilizing near $350,000 over 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked during the 21:30–22:00 ET window with massive volume and a sharp bearish reversal.
• A key support level formed near $3.5e-07, holding through the night with consolidation afterward.
• RSI hit oversold territory post-dip but failed to trigger a strong rebound.
• Turnover surged during the downward move but has since dropped, signaling a lack of follow-through.

NFPrompt/Bitcoin (NFPBTC) opened at $4.9e-07 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, reached a high of $4.9e-07, and plunged to a low of $2.3e-07 before stabilizing near $3.5e-07 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,664,187.0 units, while notional turnover amounted to $570.15 (using $3.5e-07 as reference).

Structure & Formations

The price action exhibited a strong bearish reversal during the 21:30–21:45 ET window, where NFPBTC dropped from $4.9e-07 to $2.4e-07 in a single 15-minute bar. This was followed by a consolidation phase near $3.5e-07, with a series of doji and small-bodied candles indicating indecision. A key support level appears to be forming in this range, with multiple bounces observed since the early morning hours. No clear bullish engulfing patterns were seen during the recovery phase, and a bearish harami formed earlier in the 21:30 ET candle, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have remained above the price for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are not available due to the lack of prior daily data. However, given the sharp drop in price, it is likely the 50-day average is still above the current price level, suggesting further bearish potential if the trend continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover confirmed during the 21:30–21:45 ET period. The RSI indicator dipped into oversold territory (below 30) near the $2.4e-07 level but failed to trigger a significant bounce, indicating weak buying interest. The slow stochastics confirmed bearish momentum, and the divergence between price and RSI suggests the oversold condition may not lead to a meaningful reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the 21:30–21:45 ET window, as the price moved sharply lower and away from the midline. The bands have since contracted again as price has stabilized near $3.5e-07. The current price is positioned slightly above the 20-period lower band, indicating that the recent support level is acting as a psychological floor for the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 21:30–21:45 ET window, with over 850,000 units traded as the price collapsed. However, turnover dropped significantly following this move, indicating a lack of conviction in the new support level. The divergence between volume and price action during the consolidation phase suggests that buyers are hesitant to step in at the current level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 21:30–21:45 ET swing, the $3.5e-07 level corresponds closely to the 38.2% retracement level. This has acted as a temporary floor. On a broader daily chart basis, the 61.8% retracement level is likely near $2.8e-07, where a deeper correction could find renewed support if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the sharp bearish reversal and the consolidation at $3.5e-07, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a short-biased mean reversion approach. Triggers might include a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a contraction in Bollinger Band width. Stop-loss levels could be placed just above $3.6e-07, while targets could align with the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. This strategy would benefit from incorporating volume confirmation for entries and exits, ensuring that large volume surges are used to reinforce directional bias.