NFPrompt/Bitcoin Market Overview – 2025-11-06

Summary
• NFPBTC opened at $0.00034, with a 24-hour high of $0.00034 and low of $0.00031.
• Price closed at $0.00033, with total volume of 539,449.0 and turnover of $175.35.
• Volatility appears subdued, with price consolidating near 3.3e-07 and no clear breakout signs.

NFPrompt/Bitcoin (NFPBTC) opened at $0.00034 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00034, a low of $0.00031, and closed at $0.00033 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The 24-hour period recorded a total trading volume of 539,449.0 and a notional turnover of $175.35. Price activity remained choppy and range-bound throughout the day, with no decisive directional bias emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a range-bound structure, with a defined resistance near 3.4e-07 and a support level near 3.2e-07. A few bearish engulfing patterns appeared around 19:15 ET and 22:45 ET, but they lacked follow-through. A large bullish reversal candle emerged near 06:45 ET but failed to break above the 3.3e-07 level. The lack of clear candlestick formations suggests indecision among traders and limited conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain close together, indicating low volatility and consolidation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, signaling a neutral-to-bullish bias in the longer term, though it has not translated into a strong short-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains below the zero line, with a very flat histogram indicating weak momentum. The RSI sits at 49.2, near neutral territory, suggesting no overbought or oversold conditions at present. These readings indicate that while momentum is weak, there are no extreme conditions to trigger a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are narrow, reflecting a period of low volatility. Price remains within the band range but shows no signs of breaking out. The upper band sits near 3.4e-07 and the lower band near 3.2e-07, aligning with the range-bound structure seen in price action.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained steady throughout the day, with a few spikes around key bearish engulfing patterns and reversal attempts. Notional turnover also followed a similar pattern, confirming price movements during significant candlestick events. However, no major divergences were observed, indicating consistent conviction in the range-bound setup.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 24-hour high to low show the current price resting near the 38.2% retracement level (3.3e-07). This suggests potential support in the short term, though without a clear breakout attempt, it remains a consolidation level rather than a confirmed support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest evaluated the behavior of Bitcoin when a Bearish Engulfing candle formed on the same day as an NFP release. Over 44 such events between 2022 and 2025, the average 1-day return was -1.30%, and the cumulative 30-day return was -2.58%, significantly underperforming the benchmark. The hit ratio never exceeded 50% until the 10th day and then declined. This suggests a short-term downside bias when the two conditions converge, potentially offering a tactical short or hedging opportunity. Monitoring upcoming NFP dates and candlestick patterns could provide a predictive edge.