NFP +74.26% 24H - Sharp short-term rebound amid prolonged bear trend

On OCT 23 2025, NFP rose by 74.26% within 24 hours to reach $0.0405, NFP dropped by 665.14% within 7 days, dropped by 3042.74% within 1 month, and dropped by 8490.36% within 1 year.

The 24-hour surge marked a rare upward move for NFP amid an otherwise steep downward trajectory. While the 74.26% gain offered a brief reprieve from the extended selloff, it did little to reverse the broader bearish trend that has persisted over the past 30 days and 12 months. The price action reflects heightened volatility, suggesting strong short-term market sentiment swings, though long-term positioning remains bearish. Analysts project further corrections unless the asset can close above key resistance levels identified in recent technical analysis.

From a technical standpoint, the sharp one-day rebound may indicate a potential short-term oversold condition. However, given the historical context of steep declines over both intermediate and long-term horizons, this move is unlikely to establish a new upward trend without additional bullish confirmations. The absence of follow-through buying power remains a concern for traders evaluating the sustainability of the bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Recent market activity highlights the need for precise event-driven strategies to evaluate the impact of significant NFP movements. A proposed backtesting framework seeks to quantify the effect of NFP surges on asset performance, particularly in defining threshold parameters, selecting test instruments, and establishing exit rules.

Key parameters for the backtest include the definition of an “NFP surge,” the asset class to be evaluated, and the position-holding strategy. Clarifying whether a surge is defined as a percentage increase relative to the prior month, market consensus, or an average benchmark is essential for reproducible results. Similarly, selecting the appropriate asset—such as the S&P 500 ETF or alternative instruments—will determine how the market reacts to NFP-driven signals.

Exit rules must also be clearly defined to capture the full market response. For instance, holding a position for a fixed period (e.g., five trading days) or adjusting based on dynamic indicators provides different insights into the effectiveness of the signal. Furthermore, determining the directional bias—whether to go long on a surge or test both long and short positions—adds a critical layer of complexity to the strategy.