NFLX Options Signal Bullish Setup: 10-for-1 Split and $1,200 Call OI Highlight Upside Potential

• Netflix’s 10-for-1 stock split (effective Nov 17) aims to make shares more accessible, with shares up 3.1% on the news.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at $1,200 and $1,300 strikes for Friday expiration, while puts dominate at $1,000–$1,050.
• Technical indicators (RSI at 21.9, Bollinger Bands) suggest oversold conditions and a potential rebound from the 200D MA.
• Put/call ratio for open interest is 1.05, hinting at cautious bearishness but strong upside positioning in OTM calls.

Here’s the core insight: Options data and technicals align on a short-term bullish setup, but long-term averages and bearish momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) warn of a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls vs. Defensive Puts: What the Options OI Reveals

The options chain tells a story of divided priorities. For Friday expiration, $1,200 calls (OI: 2,255) and $1,300 calls (OI: 2,165) dominate, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp rebound above current levels. Meanwhile, $1,020 puts (OI: 2,168) and $1,050 puts (OI: 1,658) show heavy downside protection being bought, likely by long-term holders wary of a pullback.

But here’s the twist: Next Friday’s options show even more aggressive positioning. $1,150 calls (OI: 4,535) and $1,200 calls (OI: 3,711) indicate a belief in a sustained move above the 200D MA ($1,126.69). On the put side, $1,000 puts (OI: 4,308) and $1,100 puts (OI: 2,561) suggest a floor is being priced in around $1,000–$1,100.

The put/call ratio (1.05) isn’t extreme, but it’s enough to signal that bears aren’t backing down. The key takeaway? Bulls are buying optimism, but bears are hedging their bets. If NFLX breaks above $1,150, the call-heavy OI could fuel a rapid move toward $1,200. But a drop below $1,050 might trigger a wave of panic selling.

Stock Split News: A Catalyst or a Distraction?

Netflix’s 10-for-1 split is a classic retail-friendly move. Lower prices often attract new buyers, and the 3.1% post-announcement pop shows the market is listening. But here’s the rub: The stock is already trading near its 200D MA, and long-term averages (100D: $1,206.75) still loom as resistance.

The split’s real impact hinges on perception. If investors see it as a sign of confidence in Netflix’s growth (driven by ad revenue and content like the Mike Tyson special), the stock could rally. But if the split is viewed as a desperate move to keep shares affordable, the bullish momentum might fizzle. Right now, the options data leans toward the former—call buyers are pricing in a post-split rebound.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Spreads, and Stock Entries

Let’s get specific. For options traders, the $1,150 calls expiring next Friday (OI: 4,535) are a standout. If NFLX closes above $1,150 by then, these strikes could see explosive gains. A safer bet? A bull call spread using the $1,120 call (OI: 1,546) and $1,150 call. This caps risk while still capturing upside if the stock breaks out.

For stock traders, entry near $1,100–$1,110 (current support zone) is tempting. If NFLX holds above this level, targets could include the 200D MA at $1,126.69 and then the $1,150–$1,175 range. A breakdown below $1,092 (30D support) would signal a shift in sentiment, so keep stops tight.

Bearish hedges? The $1,050 puts (OI: 1,658) offer downside protection if the stock stumbles. But given the RSI’s oversold reading and Bollinger Band positioning, I’d lean bullish unless the 200D MA breaks decisively.Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 30 days will test NFLX’s resolve. The stock split is a psychological boost, but the 100D and 200D MAs are stubborn hurdles. If the bulls can push NFLX above $1,175 (upper Bollinger Band at $1,254.84 is a stretch), the stock could re-enter a bullish trend. But a failure to hold above $1,100 would reignite bearish momentum.

In short: This is a setup for a short-term rebound, but long-term patience is key. The options market is pricing in a fight for $1,200, but the broader trend remains in a trading range. For now, treat this as a high-conviction trade with clear entry and exit points. And if the Mike Tyson special drops and goes viral? Well, that’s the kind of catalyst that turns technicals into headlines.