NFLX Options Signal Bullish Bet at $120 as Oversold RSI and Earnings Hype Fuel 2026 Setup

• Netflix’s Q4 revenue hit $8.2B, subscribers hit 300M, but India lost 5% of users
• Options market shows 52k open interest at $120 call (Dec 19) vs 23k at $95 put
• RSI at 30.41 suggests oversold conditions, but 30D support at $92.71 holds firm

The big picture: NFLX is caught between bullish earnings momentum and bearish subscriber risks. But options data tells a clearer story—traders are piling into $120 calls ahead of next week, hinting at a potential breakout play. Let’s break down why this could be a setup for 2026.What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market isn’t just noisy—it’s directional. This Friday’s top OTM calls cluster around $100–$120, while next Friday’s $120 call (OI: 52,161) dwarfs all others. That’s not random. It suggests smart money is positioning for a rally above $120, likely betting on the January 15, 2026 earnings report and the new ad-supported tier launch.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $95 put (OI: 22,989) acts as a floor for now. If NFLX dips below $95, that strike could become a magnet for short-term buyers. The put/call ratio (1.02) is nearly balanced, but the skew toward higher-strike calls shows conviction in the upside.

Block trading? None to report. So this isn’t a whale-driven move—it’s retail and institutional players aligning on the same thesis.

How News Feeds Into the NFLX Narrative

Netflix’s reality is mixed. The $8.2B revenue beat and Midas Interactive acquisition are tailwinds. But job cuts, India subscriber losses, and Goldman’s downgrade add friction. Here’s the twist: the market already priced in the bad news. The RSI at 30.41 and MACD histogram turning positive (-211 vs -237 signal line) suggest the sell-off may be over.

The real catalyst? The 2026 ad tier and European IPO. Those aren’t 2025 stories—they’re 2026 plays. Traders are front-running that narrative, which explains why the $120 call (expiring Dec 19) is so popular. It’s a proxy bet on long-term optimism, not short-term noise.

Actionable Trade Ideas for NFLXFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy NFLX20251219C120 (Dec 19 $120 call). Rationale: High OI + oversold RSI + earnings hype. Target: Hold through Jan 15 earnings if NFLX breaks $114 resistance.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy NFLX20251219P95 (Dec 19 $95 put). Rationale: 30D support at $92.71 + 52k OI at this strike. Use as insurance if NFLX dips below $95.

For Stock Traders:

• Entry: Consider buying NFLX near $95.36 if it holds above $92.71 support. Stop-loss below $92.71.
• Target: First resistance at $114.00 (30D level). If it clears that, aim for $120 (the call strike) as a short-term ceiling.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test NFLX’s resolve. A break above $114 could trigger a rally toward $120–$130, fueled by the January earnings report and 2026 product launches. But a drop below $92.71 would reignite bearish sentiment, especially with India’s subscriber woes and job cuts lingering in the background.

Bottom line: This isn’t a simple long or short. It’s a setup for a directional trade with clear levels. The $120 call is your rocket fuel if you’re bullish. The $95 put is your parachute if you’re cautious. Either way, NFLX is setting the stage for a 2026 comeback—and December could be the warm-up act.