NFLX Options Signal Bearish Bias as $90 Support Tests Long-Term Resilience

• Netflix (NFLX) plunges 3% to $90.97 amid regulatory hurdles for its $72B Warner Bros. deal.
• Options data shows heavy put open interest at $90–$88, with call OI surging at $95–$110 strikes.
• Technical indicators confirm short-term bearish momentum, but long-term fundamentals remain intact.

Here’s the deal: NFLX is caught in a tug-of-war between near-term bearish options positioning and its durable long-term growth story. The stock’s 3% drop today—its lowest since late 2024—has triggered defensive positioning, with puts dominating open interest. But let’s dig into what this means for traders and how to navigate the crosscurrents of volatility and value.

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Options Activity

The options market is screaming caution. For this Friday’s expiration, puts at $90–$88 have 2,763–4,683 open contracts, while calls at $95–$110 hold 21,096–22,795 OI. This 1.05 put/call ratio (for open interest) shows investors are hedging downside risk aggressively. The heavy call OI at $95–$110 isn’t bullish—it’s a bet that a rebound could snap back to those levels if support holds.

But here’s the catch: the $90.82 intraday low today is perilously close to the Bollinger Band lower bound ($89.13). If that breaks, the 30D support zone ($93.56–$93.99) becomes the next line of defense. The lack of block trades (no whale-sized bets) suggests this is retail and institutional caution, not a coordinated short attack.

Warner Bros. Drama vs. Ad-Driven Growth

The news flow is a mixed bag. The stalled $72B Warner Bros. acquisition is clearly weighing on sentiment—regulatory uncertainty and Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid have spooked investors. Yet, the recent $30M windfall for theaters via Stranger Things’ theatrical finale hints at thawing relations. More importantly, Netflix’s ad-supported tier now has 190M monthly viewers, with operating margins at 31.5% in Q3 2025. These aren’t the numbers of a dying business.

The market is overreacting to short-term noise. The $72B deal’s antitrust hurdles are real, but Netflix’s core business is expanding into gaming, sports, and physical experiences—diversifying revenue beyond streaming. This isn’t a one-trick pony.

Trade Ideas: Defend the $90 Line or Ride the Rebound

For options traders, the most actionable setup is a short put spread at the $90 strike. Sell the NFLX20260109P90 (next Friday’s expiration) for ~$1.20 if the stock holds above $90.82. This plays the odds that support holds, with limited risk if the stock gaps lower.

If the $93.56 support zone holds, consider a call diagonal spread using the NFLX20260109C95. Buy the $95 call for ~$0.85 and sell the NFLX20260116C98 (next week’s expiry) for ~$1.10. This captures a potential rebound while capping risk.

For stock traders, the 30D support range ($93.56–$93.99) is a key entry zone. Consider buying NFLX near $93.56 if it bounces off that level, with a target at $95.55 (middle Bollinger Band) and a stop-loss below $90.82. The RSI at 55.7 suggests we’re not in oversold territory yet, so a rebound isn’t guaranteed—but the long-term moving averages (30D at $99.62) still point to a path higher.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. If NFLX closes below $90.82, the 200D Bollinger Band ($89.13) becomes a psychological floor. But a rebound above $93.56 could trigger a short-covering rally. The key takeaway? This is a short-term volatility play, not a long-term bet. The fundamentals are strong—this dip is a buying opportunity for those with a 6–12 month horizon, but near-term options positioning demands caution.

Netflix isn’t broken. It’s just navigating a rocky patch. The options market is pricing in the worst-case scenario for the Warner Bros. deal, but the company’s ad-driven growth and expanding ecosystem suggest the upside remains intact. Trade the volatility, but keep your eye on the long game.