NFLX Options Signal $95–$110 Battle: How to Play the Warner Bros Bid's Volatility

• NFLX down 1.37% at $102.54, trading below 200-day MA for 10 days straight
• Put/call open interest ratio at 1.16, with 8,685 puts at $95 and 14,768 calls at $110
• Warner Bros bid sparks regulatory fears, stock closed below key technical levels

The market is hedging a bearish bet: Options data and technicals align on downside risk, but call activity hints at potential volatility catalysts. Here’s how to navigate the crossroads.The Options Imbalance: A Bearish Playbook with Hidden Firepower

Put open interest at $95–$97.5 strikes dominates this Friday’s expirations, with 8,685 puts at $95—the most watched level. This suggests institutional players are bracing for a breakdown below $100, especially with RSI at 1.06 (extreme oversold territory). Yet call activity isn’t dead: 14,768 calls at $110 (this Friday’s top OTM strike) and 8,305 at $125 show some bullish conviction. The split? Traders are hedging a Warner Bros deal fallout but leaving room for a rebound if regulatory fears ease.

The $95–$110 corridor is the battleground. If NFLX breaks below $97.5, the put-heavy OI could accelerate selling. But a rally above $105 might trigger call buyers to capitalize on a short-covering bounce. No block trades to skew the odds—this is pure retail and institutional sentiment clashing.Warner Bros Drama: Fuel for the Bear or a False Flag?

Netflix’s $70B bid for WBD assets has investors spooked. The 5.4% drop last week wasn’t just about debt—it was about execution risk. Merging 400M subscribers? Bundling pricing models? Regulatory roadblocks? These aren’t just headlines; they’re real operational nightmares.

Yet the market’s pricing in a worst-case scenario. Analysts peg fair value at $134.65, implying 30% upside if the deal closes smoothly. But until then, the stock’s technicals (MACD at -272.8, Bollinger Bands squeezing) suggest more pain. The 200-day MA at $107.62 is a psychological wall—break that, and the bear case gets reinforced.

Actionable Trades: Put Protection and Call ContingencyFor options traders:

• Bearish play: Buy NFLX20251205P97.5 (next Friday’s $97.5 puts) at $3.25. Target $95 if the stock gaps down pre-earnings.
• Bullish hedge: NFLX20251212C110 (next Friday’s $110 calls) at $1.80. Use this if the stock rebounds on short-covering or regulatory optimism.

For stock traders:

• Short entry: Consider selling NFLX near $101.77 (today’s low) with a stop above $103.96 (30D resistance). Target $95–$97.5 if the Warner Bros narrative worsens.
• Long entry: Buy NFLX at $100.50 (just below 200-day MA) with a tight stop at $98.50. This works only if the stock holds key support and news turns positive.

Volatility on the Horizon: The 30-45 Day Outlook

The next 45 days will test NFLX’s mettle. If the WBD deal survives regulatory scrutiny, the stock could rally on bundled pricing optimism. But a single misstep—antitrust lawsuits, integration delays, subscriber churn—could send it tumbling toward $90s.

Your edge? The options market already prices in 1.16x more bearish bets than bullish. That’s your guide: protect downside with puts at $95–$97.5, and keep a small position in calls at $110 to capitalize on a surprise rebound. This isn’t a long-term trade—it’s a volatility play. And in Hollywood, surprises are the norm.