NFLX Options Signal $1200 Call Contention as Stock Split and Content Launches Fuel Volatility Playbook

• Netflix’s 10-for-1 stock split and $110 price reset loom, with options data showing heavy call open interest at $1200 and $1300 strikes.
• Put/call ratio near parity (1.06) hints at balanced risk, but RSI at 70.11 suggests near-term overbought conditions.
• Stranger Things finale and Warner Bros. bid rumors create catalysts—yet a $619M Brazil tax hit clouds short-term clarity.

Here’s the takeaway: NFLX is dancing on a tightrope. Options traders are betting big on a post-split rally, but technical indicators and mixed fundamentals mean this isn’t a free ride. Let’s break it down.

The $1200 Call Wall and the Bearish Counterweight

Options market sentiment is split—literally. For Friday’s expiry, the $1200 call (OI: 4,541) and $1300 call (OI: 2,491) dominate, while puts cluster at $1020 (OI: 2,023) and $1100 (OI: 1,380). Next week’s expiry amplifies this tension: $1200 calls (OI: 4,151) and $1340 calls (OI: 2,849) suggest a bullish war chest, but $1000 puts (OI: 3,178) and $900 puts (OI: 2,183) signal hedgers bracing for a drop.

The put/call ratio of 1.06 (based on open interest) isn’t screaming bearish, but it’s not bullish either. Think of it as a seesaw: for every $1200 call buyer expecting a post-split pop, there’s a $1100 put buyer hedging against a tax-related slump. The danger? If NFLX closes below $1092 (30D support) this week, those puts could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders.

Block trading is silent here—no whale-sized bets to tip the scales. That means retail and institutional options activity are the main drivers. And right now, they’re painting a picture of a stock at a crossroads: content-driven optimism vs. near-term profit-taking.

Stock Split Hype vs. Reality Check

Netflix’s 10-for-1 split is the headline act. Lowering the price from $1,100 to $110 should boost retail liquidity, especially with Stranger Things’ final season dropping in November. But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: that $619M Brazil tax hit. It’s not just a one-time hit—it’s a credibility test. Can Netflix convince investors this was an anomaly, or will it open the door for rivals like Paramount to close the content gap?

The news flow is a mixed bag. On one hand, the Philadelphia House opening and toy licensing deals show IP monetization creativity. On the other, the Schall Law Firm’s fraud investigation adds a cloud. This duality is reflected in options: bullish calls for the split and content rollout, bearish puts for legal and competitive risks.

Here’s the kicker: the stock’s current price ($1117.57) is sitting just below its 200D MA ($1130). If it holds above $1092 support, the split could act as a springboard. But if it cracks that level, the 200D MA becomes resistance—and the puts at $1100 might not hold back a stampede.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Split Pop, Puts for the Tax Drop

For options traders, the $1200 call (Friday expiry) is a high-conviction play. Why? The strike aligns with the post-split fair value estimate ($77 * 10 = $770 pre-split, $77 post-split). But here’s the twist: if the stock gaps up on split-adjusted trading, this call could see a 20%+ move. Entry: $1200 call at $12.50 (current bid). Target: $15.50 if NFLX hits $1220 by expiry.

For the cautious, the $1100 put (Friday expiry) offers downside protection. With RSI at 70.11 and MACD (-12.99) still negative, a pullback is likely. Entry: $1100 put at $8.20. Target: $10.50 if price drops to $1070.

Stock traders: Look to buy near $1092–1095 support. If NFLX holds above this zone, target $1150 (30D MA) as a short-term ceiling. A break below $1092? Consider shorting with a stop at $1100. The Bollinger Bands (lower at $1034.59) are a long-term floor, but don’t expect a bounce there without a catalyst.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing the Split’s Promise and Peril

The next two weeks are critical. The split on November 17 will reset the price, but the real test is whether NFLX can maintain its $1100+ momentum post-split. If the tax issue is truly a one-off and the Stranger Things finale drives engagement, the $1200 call wall could become a floor. But if legal risks or competitive pressures intensify, the $1000 put cluster might become a ceiling.

This isn’t a binary bet. It’s a chess game. The options market is pricing in both scenarios—and that’s where the opportunity lies. For now, the data says: play the split, hedge the tax hit, and watch the content rollout like a hawk. Because in this market, the line between a rally and a rout is thinner than Netflix’s new ad-supported tier.