NFLX Options Signal $1,150 Bull Call Battle as RSI 31.25 Hints at Oversold Rebound – Here’s How to Play It

• Netflix’s options market shows a tight call/put balance (ratio: 1.01) but heavy call open interest at $1,150 and $1,200 strikes
• RSI at 31.25 suggests short-term oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands hint at a potential rebound to $1,146.96
• Earnings miss and Brazil tax hit weigh on sentiment, but a 10-for-1 split and WBD acquisition rumors add long-term intrigue

The stock is dancing on a tightrope right now. On one side, technicals scream for a rebound after sinking to 31.25 on the RSI. On the other, options traders are stacking calls at $1,150 like bricks in a wall—ready to catch a bounce. Let’s break down what this means for your portfolio.The Options Chessboard: Calls at $1,150, Puts at $1,090

Look at the options chain, and you’ll see a tug-of-war unfolding. For Friday expiration, 2,850 open interest is parked at the $1,150 call strike—nearly double the next highest call at $1,200. That’s not random. Traders are hedging a rebound scenario, betting Netflix’s price won’t stay below $1,100 forever.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $1,090 strike has 2,657 open interest, just 200 points below current price. That’s a red flag for downside risk. If NFLX breaks below $1,087.5 (today’s intraday low), those puts could trigger a cascade of selling.

The put/call ratio (1.01) is almost balanced, but the RSI tells a different story. At 31.25, the stock is technically oversold. Think of it like a compressed spring—eventually, it pops. The question is whether bulls can hold the $1,092.047 support level (30D support) to fuel that bounce.

News Flow: Split-Driven Liquidity vs. Brazil Tax Headache

Netflix’s 10-for-1 stock split (effective Nov 17) is a retail-friendly move that could juice demand. But the Q3 earnings miss—$5.87/share vs. $6.97 expected—casts a shadow. That $619M Brazil tax hit wasn’t baked into models, and CFO Spence Neumann’s "no material impact" line feels like damage control.

Meanwhile, whispers of a Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition are heating up. If true, this could turbocharge content libraries and subscriber growth. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—this is still a rumor stage play.

Analysts are split too. Arete’s $1,342.76 price target is bold, but Erste Group’s downgrade to Hold after the earnings miss shows caution. The ad segment’s 190M global viewers is a bright spot, but remember: subscription revenue still drives 80% of the business.

Trade Ideas: Call Spreads at $1,150 and $1,200, or a $1,092 Buy

For options traders, the $1,150 call (OI: 2,850) and $1,200 call (OI: 1,892) for Friday expiration are your best bets. If NFLX rebounds to $1,146.96 (middle Bollinger Band), these strikes could see sharp gamma-driven acceleration. A call spread between $1,150 and $1,200 would cap risk while leveraging volatility.

Stock buyers should eye $1,092.047 as a key entry level. That’s the 30D support zone. If price holds here, a rebound toward $1,150 becomes plausible. Set a stop-loss below $1,087.5 (today’s intraday low) to protect against a breakdown.

Bearish players might consider the $1,090 put (OI: 2,657) for Friday, but only if NFLX closes below $1,087.5. The 200D moving average at $1,126.10 is a critical resistance level—if bulls can’t reclaim that, the stock could retest $1,029.48 (lower Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Split-Adjusted Bounce or Tax-Driven Drag?

The coming weeks will test NFLX’s resolve. The stock split should boost liquidity, but the Brazil tax issue lingers. If the WBD acquisition rumors gain traction, we could see a short-term pop. However, earnings misses and margin pressures remain near-term risks.

For now, the data points to a short-term rebound trade with a longer-term watch on structural catalysts. Keep an eye on the $1,150 call wall—breakthrough there could signal a shift in sentiment. But don’t ignore the puts at $1,090; they’re a warning sign if the bulls falter.

Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in both a bounce and a breakdown. Your job? Decide which story you believe—and act before the Friday expiration deadline.