NFI's Path to Sustainable Deleveraging: Leveraging Strong EBITDA and Cash Flow Growth

NFI Group Inc. (NFI) has emerged as a compelling case study in strategic deleveraging, driven by robust EBITDA growth, disciplined cash flow management, and a restructured capital framework. As the company navigates a high-growth, capital-intensive industry, its ability to balance aggressive expansion with financial prudence underscores a path to sustainable value creation.

EBITDA Growth and Operational Momentum

NFI's fiscal 2024 results highlight a dramatic turnaround in profitability. Adjusted EBITDA surged 210% year-over-year to $214.4 million, with Q4 2024 alone contributing $67.9 million—a 76.4% increase from the prior yearNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. This growth was fueled by a record $12.8 billion backlog, a 61.2% year-over-year jump, with 40.3% of orders tied to zero-emission buses (ZEBs), reflecting strong alignment with decarbonization trendsNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. The Aftermarket segment further bolstered results, delivering 15.8% revenue growth and 10.1% net earnings growth in Q4 2024NFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1].

Despite a 68.2% decline in net cash from operations in Q4 2024, the company's liquidity position remained resilient at $126.8 million, albeit down 33% from Q3 2024. This decline was attributed to debt repayments and strategic reinvestment in deferred revenue balancesNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. The reduction in leverage ratio from 14.1x to 4.37x by year-end 2024NFI Group (NFI.TO) - Total debt^[2] signals meaningful progress in deleveraging, even as NFI maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72NFI Group (NFI.TO) - Total debt^[2].

Capital Structure Optimization: Refinancing and Liquidity Management

NFI's 2025 refinancing plan exemplifies its commitment to sustainable deleveraging. The company secured a $845 million first lien secured revolving credit facility, significantly enhancing liquidity and financial flexibilityNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. This was complemented by a $444 million refinancing initiative, including amendments to North American and UK credit facilities, repayment of $251.2 million in secured debt, and a $263.6 million equity raise through private placements and public offeringsNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. A $180.4 million second lien debt facility with Coliseum, featuring a 14.5% annual coupon, further diversified NFI's funding sourcesNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1].

These moves extended debt maturities to April 30, 2026, aligning with the company's long-term capital needs and reducing refinancing risk. By June 2025, NFI's total debt had risen to €1.13 billion—a 10.37% increase year-over-yearNFI Group (NFI.TO) - Total debt^[2]—but this was offset by improved covenant flexibility and a stronger liquidity buffer. As of Q3 2025, NFI's liquidity exceeded $370 million, providing a cushion to navigate challenges like a battery recall-related warranty provisionNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1].

Long-Term Value Creation: Backlog, ROIC, and Market Position

NFI's strategic focus on ZEBs and its $13.7 billion backlog as of Q3 2025NFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1] position it to capitalize on North America's transition to clean energy. The company's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has surged from 0.8% in 2023 to 7.5% in Q1 2025NFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1], reflecting efficient capital allocation and operational improvements. This trajectory is critical for sustaining deleveraging efforts, as higher ROIC generates internal cash flow to service debt without relying on external financing.

Moreover, NFI's proactive supply chain management—such as securing alternative suppliers and deploying resources to address battery recall issues—demonstrates operational disciplineNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. These actions mitigate short-term risks while preserving long-term margins, ensuring that deleveraging remains a continuous process rather than a one-time event.

Challenges and Mitigation

While NFI's progress is notable, challenges persist. The battery recall in Q3 2025, though non-cash, could strain short-term liquidity. However, the company's $370 million liquidity buffer and $845 million credit facility provide ample capacity to absorb such shocksNFI Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results^[1]. Additionally, the shift to ZEBs, while aligned with regulatory trends, carries higher upfront costs. NFI's ability to maintain pricing power and scale production will determine whether these investments translate into sustained profitability.

Conclusion

NFI's path to sustainable deleveraging hinges on its ability to convert operational momentum into durable financial strength. By leveraging EBITDA growth, optimizing capital structure through refinancing and equity raises, and maintaining a robust liquidity position, the company is well-positioned to reduce leverage while funding its ambitious backlog. As the clean energy transition accelerates, NFI's strategic alignment with ZEBs and its disciplined approach to capital management could unlock significant long-term value for stakeholders.