NFG Profits Rise as Shorts Bet Against Oversupply

Forward-Looking Analysis

Analysts at BofA have downgraded NFG due to rising natural gas oversupply risks, citing a looming LNG glut and weak demand growth. Natural gas futures (NG=F) surged 6.04% amid winter storms and grid strain, but oversupply concerns persist. Short interest in NFG rose 13.7% to 4.11% of float, reflecting bearish sentiment. While NFG’s 2025Q4 revenue ($456.41M) and net income ($107.34M) suggest resilience, analysts project muted Q1 performance as oversupply pressures margins. No new products, M&A, or CEO announcements were reported. The short interest ratio of 6.0 implies potential volatility if a short squeeze materializes, though BofA’s downgrade signals caution.

Historical Performance Review

National Fuel Gas reported 2025Q4 revenue of $456.41 million, net income of $107.34 million, and EPS of $1.19. Gross profit totaled $322.23 million, reflecting stable operations amid volatile energy markets. The results underscore NFG’s ability to maintain profitability despite sector headwinds, though Q1 faces heightened oversupply risks.

Additional News

As of December 31, 2025, NFG’s short interest increased to 3.85 million shares (4.11% of float), a 13.68% rise from prior periods. The short interest ratio (6.0) suggests moderate bearish sentiment. Institutional investors like Susquehanna and Citadel hold short positions. Natural gas prices surged 6.04% weekly, driven by winter storms and grid strain, but BofA warns of long-term oversupply risks. No new products, M&A, or CEO activity was reported.

Summary & Outlook

NFG’s 2025Q4 results highlight strong profitability, but Q1 faces downside risks from natural gas oversupply and weak demand. BofA’s downgrade and elevated short interest (4.11%) signal bearish sentiment. While NFG’s operational resilience is evident, oversupply pressures and short-covering volatility could weigh on earnings. The outlook remains cautiously bearish due to structural supply-demand imbalances, though NFG’s robust 2025Q4 performance offers some resilience.