The Next U.S. President: Inheriting a Booming Economy, A Daunting Challenge

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the next commander-in-chief will inherit a booming economy, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The economy has shown remarkable resilience, with strong job creation, robust consumer sentiment, and steady GDP growth. However, the next president must navigate this economic landscape while addressing lingering voter dissatisfaction and maintaining the current trajectory.

The U.S. economy has been on a roll, with private job creation beating estimates, pending home sales data surging, and consumer sentiment reaching pre-pandemic levels. The GDP growth rate, while slightly below some expectations, remains solid at 2.8% annually. This economic momentum is a testament to the policies implemented by the current administration, in tandem with the Federal Reserve's efforts to stabilize the economy.


However, despite the strong macroeconomic data, consumer moods remain gloomy, partly due to higher prices than pre-pandemic levels. This paradox can be attributed to a combination of factors, including lingering inflation trauma, partisan societal divisions, and media bias towards negative news. The next president must address this economic pessimism while maintaining the current growth trajectory.

The stable economy presents an opportunity for the next president to focus on the policies they campaigned on. However, they must also perform a delicate balancing act: executing their pledges to overhaul the economy without derailing the current real economic growth. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that 44% of U.S. adult respondents believe that "total economic collapse" is at least somewhat likely, according to an October YouGov poll.


To address economic inequality without hindering growth, the next president could promote progressive tax reform, as advocated by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. This involves ensuring that the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share, while not raising taxes on households with incomes below $400,000. Additionally, empowering workers by strengthening labor unions and promoting worker power, as outlined in the Biden-Harris Economic Blueprint, could help reduce income inequality and ensure that the benefits of economic growth are shared more equitably.

The next president must also balance the need for infrastructure investment and fiscal responsibility to maintain economic growth and public support. The Biden-Harris administration has already invested heavily in infrastructure, with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocating $1.2 trillion over five years. However, this spending must be carefully managed to avoid unsustainable debt levels. A divided Congress may help maintain this balance, as it can act as a check on excessive spending. The next president should prioritize projects that have a high return on investment, such as repairing and upgrading existing infrastructure, and focus on long-term economic growth rather than short-term political gains.

International trade and cooperation will play a crucial role in shaping the next president's economic strategy. Michael Pettis's views on trade dynamics, such as supporting import tariffs and capital controls, offer an alternative perspective to mainstream economic thought. Pettis argues that surplus countries like China are the real protectionists, and the U.S. trade deficit is driven by the inflow of foreign savings, which increases the dollar's value and harms domestic manufacturing. To manage global trade dynamics, the next president could consider implementing policies that address trade imbalances and promote a more balanced global trade environment. This could involve international cooperation to address global economic imbalances, while being aware of the challenges posed by differing national interests.


In conclusion, the next U.S. president will inherit a booming economy, presenting both opportunities and challenges. To navigate this economic landscape successfully, they must address lingering voter dissatisfaction, maintain the current growth trajectory, and balance the need for infrastructure investment and fiscal responsibility. By promoting progressive tax reform, empowering workers, and fostering international cooperation, the next president can ensure that the U.S. economy continues to thrive and benefit all Americans.