Nexstar Media's Q1 2025 Earnings: Key Metrics and What They Mean for Investors

Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ: NXST) is set to release its first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 8, a critical moment for investors analyzing the media giant’s trajectory. With its sprawling portfolio of 201 local TV stations, national networks like The CW and NewsNation, and growing digital assets, Nexstar’s results will offer insights into its ability to navigate advertising headwinds and capitalize on its market dominance. Here’s what investors need to watch for.

Key Financial Metrics to Watch

Revenue: A Slight Decline or Resilience?

Analysts project Q1 2025 revenue of $1.23 billion, a 4.4% year-over-year decline from Q1 2024’s $1.286 billion (based on historical trends). This reflects ongoing challenges in the advertising market, where local TV revenue has faced pressure from digital platforms and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, Nexstar’s diversified portfolio—spanning broadcast, digital, and syndication—could mitigate this. A beat on revenue would signal resilience.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Navigating the Discrepancy

The EPS estimate is murkier. While the primary consensus is $3.36, some analysts cite a lower $3.26, likely due to differences in adjusted vs. reported metrics. Investors should note whether Nexstar’s guidance accounts for one-time costs or operational improvements. A miss here could pressure the stock, especially after Q4 2024’s EPS shortfall of 6.01% (actual EPS of $7.56 vs. $8.04 estimates).

Why Nexstar’s Earnings Matter

Full-Year 2025 Outlook

Analysts expect full-year revenue of $4.98 billion (a slight downward revision from $5.01B) and EPS of $15.57 (up from $14.72B), suggesting margin improvements. This optimism hinges on cost controls and growth in digital ad revenue, which now accounts for over 30% of total ad sales.

The Stock’s Value Proposition

At its current price of $154.52, Nexstar trades at a forward P/E of 9.12, well below its five-year average of 16. Analysts’ average target of $199.31 (a 28.99% upside) and GuruFocus’s valuation of $202.87 (31.29% upside) highlight undervaluation. However, achieving these targets requires strong execution in Q1 and beyond.

Risks and Challenges

1. Advertising Revenue Volatility: Local TV ad revenue remains tied to economic cycles. A repeat of Q4’s ad revenue miss (which narrowly met estimates but lagged expectations in 2023) could spook investors.
2. Competitive Pressures: Streaming giants like Disney+ and Paramount+ continue to erode traditional TV viewership, though Nexstar’s local news dominance provides a buffer.
3. Insider Activity: Notable insider sales in March , totaling $6.7 million, may signal near-term caution.

Historical Performance Context

In Q4 2024, Nexstar reported $1.49 billion in revenue (matching estimates) but saw EPS fall short due to higher costs. Despite the miss, the stock rose 11.1% post-earnings—a sign investors may prioritize long-term trends over short-term hiccups.

The Earnings Call: What to Listen For

• Management’s Guidance: Any upward revisions to 2025 EPS (current $15.57) or digital revenue growth.
• Cost Control Updates: Margins improved in 2024; will this continue?
• M&A Activity: Nexstar’s history of acquisitions (e.g., Tribune Media, Sinclair Broadcast) could resurface as a growth lever.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Nexstar

Nexstar’s Q1 2025 earnings are a litmus test for its ability to balance legacy TV revenue with digital growth. With a stock price hovering near its 52-week low ($141.66) and analyst targets pointing upward, a strong report could unlock significant upside. However, investors must weigh near-term risks—like ad revenue softness—against the company’s structural advantages.

The $199.31 average target implies Nexstar could reclaim its 2024 highs, but this requires outperforming Q1 estimates and demonstrating margin resilience. For now, Nexstar remains a compelling “value” play in media, provided investors stay disciplined about execution.

Investors are advised to tune into the May 8 earnings call (10:00 a.m. ET) for clarity on these metrics and future guidance.