NEXOUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Mixed Momentum Amid Shifting Trends

Summary
• Price declined sharply from 1.1 to 0.973 before stabilizing near 1.05.
• 24-hour volume surged to 68581.25, with high volatility and diverging patterns.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest a possible rebound, but bearish pressure remains.

NEXO/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at 1.082 on 2025-11-04 at 17:00 ET and reached a high of 1.1 before a notable selloff to 0.973. The 24-hour period closed at 1.054 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume reached 68581.25, with turnover exceeding $76 (USD equivalent). The price action featured a large bearish engulfing pattern early in the session and a retest of key support levels, indicating shifting momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period showed a strong bearish reversal with a large engulfing candle at the top of a prior bullish trend. Key support levels were identified around 1.05–1.03, with a bullish pinocchio candle forming near the 1.033 level. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the initial decline appears to have found temporary support, while resistance levels at 1.06–1.07 show signs of bearish rejection.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price appears to have tested the 20-period moving average and fell below the 50-period line, confirming short-term weakness. The daily chart suggests that the 50 and 100-day moving averages have crossed, forming a bearish “death cross” pattern that may signal continued downward pressure ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, reinforcing the downward bias. RSI dipped into the 40–50 range, indicating neutral to bearish momentum, though a potential divergence between price and RSI suggests a possible rebound. A 30-level RSI could signal oversold conditions, but no clear confirmation of a reversal has emerged.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke below the lower Bollinger Band for a brief period, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bands have since expanded, reflecting increased volatility. A consolidation phase appears to be forming near the 1.04–1.06 range, with the upper band offering dynamic resistance and the lower band acting as a short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, with a large candle around 18:00 ET showing 637299.01 volume and a 6.6% drop in price. Turnover diverged with price after the initial decline, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. However, recent volume remains relatively subdued, indicating that the current trend may not be fully committed.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement of the initial bearish move appears to be holding as a support level, with a retest currently showing bullish rejection. The 50% retracement level at ~1.065 may act as a key psychological and technical barrier for further gains.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential trading strategies, a 14-day RSI-oversold signal (RSI ≤ 30) backtest could be applied. However, the dataset returned an error when retrieving RSI data for NEXOUSDT, likely due to the symbol format. To proceed, the exact exchange-qualified symbol (e.g., BINANCE:NEXO-USDT) or a list of oversold RSI dates from 2022 to 2025 is required. Once provided, the 3-day-hold backtest can be constructed, and its performance analyzed for consistency with the observed volatility and trend patterns.