Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Build Ahead of Key Breakouts

• Price dipped below 1.245 after forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• RSI hovered near oversold territory but failed to trigger a rebound.
• Volume surged during the 13:00–14:00 ET window, confirming a breakout attempt.
• Bollinger Bands contracted late in the session, hinting at a potential breakout.
• 24-hour volume totaled ~643,166.48 with ~795,554.49 turnover.

Nexo/Tether (NEXOUSDT) opened at $1.252 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $1.269, and closed at $1.26 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of ~643,166.48 and turnover of ~795,554.49, reflecting heightened interest during key price moves.

Structure & Formations

Price exhibited a clear bearish reversal pattern during the early ET session, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around 17:30–18:00 ET. However, the trend reversed in the late ET and overnight hours as NEXOUSDT surged back above 1.25, forming a bullish continuation pattern after a consolidation phase. Key support levels emerged at 1.245 and 1.238, while resistance held at 1.255 and 1.262. A notable doji formed at 05:00 ET, signaling indecision before the breakout.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period moving average rising above the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day line crossed above the 200-day line, reinforcing a longer-term positive trend. RSI climbed to overbought territory (70+) during the 13:00–14:00 ET breakout but corrected into neutral to oversold levels during consolidation. MACD crossed into positive territory around 10:00 ET, aligning with the breakout, and maintained bullish momentum for much of the session.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands exhibited a period of contraction late on 2025-09-23, followed by a strong expansion as price broke above the upper band during the 13:15–13:30 ET window. Price has since traded within a moderate range, indicating consolidation after the breakout. The most recent close of 1.26 sits just below the upper band, suggesting the potential for further upward movement if bullish momentum continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 13:15–14:00 ET window, reaching a 24-hour high as price surged past 1.255. Notional turnover followed a similar trajectory, peaking at ~55,642.75 during the 13:15–13:30 ET candle, aligning with the breakout. A divergence emerged in the 04:15–05:00 ET window, where volume dropped despite price action showing indecision. This may signal a potential short-term reversal or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels at 1.251 and 1.245, respectively. Price held above 1.245 for most of the session, reinforcing the strength of that support level. On the daily chart, retracements from the previous 3-day swing suggested key resistance at 1.262 and 1.269, both of which were tested during the breakout. A close above 1.262 could signal a new short-term trend continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The breakout from the 13:15–13:30 ET window, supported by strong volume and MACD confirmation, provides a solid entry point for a short-term bullish strategy. A backtest could involve entering on a close above the upper Bollinger Band with MACD above zero and RSI above 50. Stops could be placed just below the 1.255 level, with a target aligned with the 1.269 high and Fibonacci extension at 1.274. This setup aligns with the breakout pattern observed and the overall bullish bias from moving averages, making it a viable hypothesis for further testing.