Nexo/Tether Market Overview

• NEXOUSDT rose 0.63% over 24 hours, closing above 1.275 after a morning dip to 1.251.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after midday, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI hovered near 50, suggesting neutral momentum, while MACD remained neutral with no clear divergence.
• Volatility expanded in the morning, then contracted into a tight range in the late night.
• Bollinger Bands showed price consolidation near the mid-band, with no clear break above the upper band.

NEXOUSDT opened at 1.265 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 1.278 by 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.285 and a low of 1.251. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 685,903.93 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $873,123. Price action showed a morning sell-off followed by a strong afternoon rally, with the pair testing key support levels and closing near a 15-minute high.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown in the morning session, with a key support level at 1.260 tested and broken. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 16:00 ET as buyers retook control, pushing prices back above 1.275. Later, a doji formed near 1.278, signaling indecision and potential consolidation. The 1.260–1.270 range appears to be a critical support area, while resistance is forming at 1.280–1.285.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA moved upward from 1.265 to 1.275, aligning with the price’s recovery. The 50-period MA remained slightly bearish, but it crossed under the 20 MA at the end of the session, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 1.270, and the 200-period MA is at 1.265, suggesting a potential long-term bullish bias if the price holds above the 200 MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive crossover in the afternoon, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern and the morning sell-off’s reversal. RSI remained in the 45–55 range for much of the session, indicating neutral momentum with no clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions. However, the RSI did show a bullish divergence near 1.275, suggesting potential strength ahead.

The Bollinger Bands reflected a volatility expansion during the morning sell-off and a contraction in the late night hours as the price consolidated near the mid-band. Price briefly touched the upper band at 1.285 but failed to break through, suggesting a potential resistance area. The bands could expand further if the bullish bias continues, potentially leading to a test of the 1.290 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning selloff, peaking at over 40k units per 15-minute candle. However, the volume during the afternoon rally was more moderate, indicating a lack of conviction. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, with the largest volume spike occurring around 17:15 ET when the price dropped to 1.263. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the afternoon recovery, raising questions about the strength of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute low of 1.251 and the high of 1.285, key retracement levels include 38.2% at 1.267 and 61.8% at 1.277. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before consolidating. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 1.240–1.290 swing is at 1.266, and the 38.2% level is at 1.272. These levels appear to be converging with key moving averages, potentially offering a confluence of support/resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a strategy were built around the 20/50 MA crossovers and the RSI divergence observed, it could suggest a long setup after the bullish engulfing pattern. A possible backtest might include entering a long position after the 16:00 ET candle closed above the 50 MA and RSI crossed above 50. A stop-loss could be placed below the 1.270 level, and a target could be set at the 1.285 upper Bollinger Band. Given the current structure and volume behavior, such a setup may provide a favorable risk-reward profile over the next 12–24 hours.