Nexo Analyst Flags This Bitcoin Price Blocker - Why Crossing $70,000 Is Critical Now

Bitcoin continues to hover near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone, where multiple rejections have created a key psychological block. The price has not been able to establish a breakout, and the liquidity void below $66,000 increases the risk of a drop toward $60,000. Recent price action shows signs of bearish control, with the RSI trending toward oversold levels and weak buying pressure evident.

Market participants are closely watching the $64,000 level, which acts as a critical support for the next potential move. A break below that threshold could accelerate the descent toward $60,000, where a liquidity void could amplify selling pressure. Meanwhile, a breakout above $69,200 might trigger a fresh attempt to challenge $70,000.

Technical indicators also highlight the broader bearish sentiment. Bitcoin’s futures open interest has dropped to $34 billion, the lowest level since November 2024, suggesting reduced leverage demand and a bearish shift in institutional positioning. Deleveraging in the derivatives market has reduced the risk of cascading liquidations, but it has not yet generated enough organic buying pressure to establish a new bullish trend.

Why Did This Happen?

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has led to a 28% decline in the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), reducing the risk of a sudden liquidation cascade. Analysts view this as a positive development, indicating speculative excess has been partially removed from the market. However, this also highlights the lack of genuine demand required to drive a sustainable bullish move.

The bearish momentum is further reinforced by weak US jobs data and growing demand for put options, signaling increased bearish positioning in the options market. Institutional demand appears to be waning, with Bitcoin’s open interest reflecting a decline in leverage from both retail and institutional investors. This divergence from traditional assets like gold and equities is a concern for those who previously viewed Bitcoin as a macro hedge.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring the $60,000 level to determine whether it will act as a support or a gateway to further declines. Bitcoin has already fallen 53% in 17 weeks, raising uncertainty about the depth of the bearish phase. Analysts remain divided on whether this level will trigger a rebound or lead to a breakdown toward $50,000.

Bitcoin’s position below key moving averages continues to underscore the corrective nature of the current phase. While the price has stabilized in recent days, it remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, which are clustered between $76,400 and $91,452. Analysts suggest that a firm close above $62,510 could attract buying interest and potentially initiate a recovery phase.

The altcoin market has shown signs of stabilization, with the altcoin season indicator returning to January highs following Bitcoin’s late-night price gains. This suggests speculative interest is returning to the broader market. However, Ethereum and XRP remain in dominant bearish trends, with Ethereum trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs.

Investors are also watching how the market responds to proposed US tariff increases and the Trump administration’s broader crypto policy direction. These factors are likely to influence the sentiment of both retail and institutional investors as the bearish phase continues to unfold. While the market is showing signs of stabilization, a return to significant bullish momentum will require a catalyst, either from macroeconomic conditions or a renewed wave of institutional demand.