Newton Protocol/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.2113 to 0.1995 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum.
• Volatility and turnover spiked midday, followed by consolidation.
• RSI and MACD suggested oversold conditions late, with no strong reversal signs.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during overnight trading, hinting at lower volatility.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, with major selling pressure between 17:00 and 20:00 ET.

The Newton Protocol/Tether pair (NEWTUSDT) opened at 0.2089 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1995 the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.2113, while the low dropped to 0.1986. Total volume for the period was 2,855,923.3 with a turnover of approximately $564,931.33. Price action displayed a bearish bias, marked by several bearish engulfing patterns and a breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish trend, with price breaking below the 0.2100 level and forming a series of lower lows. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 17:00–19:00 ET, confirming the downward momentum. Support levels at 0.2070 and 0.2040 were tested, with a breakdown below 0.2040 signaling a stronger bearish sentiment. A potential short-term support area emerged near 0.2000–0.2005, where price paused for a time. No notable bullish candlestick patterns were observed, reinforcing the downward pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with price below both lines. This indicated short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages suggested a medium-term downtrend, with price below all three indicators. The confluence of short- and medium-term bearish signals increased the likelihood of a continued decline in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the afternoon, with the histogram trending lower as momentum weakened. RSI dropped below 30 during the evening hours, indicating an oversold condition. However, the failure to rebound from this level suggested a lack of buying interest. A potential bounce may occur if price retests the 0.2000–0.2005 range and RSI stabilizes above 30.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase during the overnight hours, signaling lower volatility and a possible consolidation period. As price moved lower, it drifted below the lower band in the early afternoon, confirming the bearish move. The widening of the bands later in the session suggested increased volatility and renewed bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 17:00–20:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price drop. This was followed by a period of low volume and minimal turnover, consistent with a bearish exhaustion pattern. Turnover remained elevated for much of the session, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, the lack of buying volume in the morning suggested limited short-covering or long-bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.2113 to 0.1986 swing, key levels were identified at 0.2050 (38.2%) and 0.2015 (61.8%). Price found temporary support near 0.2000, slightly above the 61.8% level. This suggests a possible pause in the downtrend if the price consolidates near this zone. A break below 0.1986 would target the next Fibonacci extension at 0.1953.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation, particularly around key Fibonacci and moving average levels. A stop-loss could be placed above the 20-period moving average, with a target aligned to the next Fibonacci extension or support level. This approach would leverage the observed bearish momentum and confluence of technical indicators. The strategy should also account for volume divergence and RSI behavior to filter low-probability signals and avoid false breakouts.