News Corp's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Test of Subscription Strength and Strategic Resilience

Investors are turning their attention to News Corp’s upcoming fiscal third quarter earnings, set for release on May 8, 2025, as the media giant faces a critical juncture in its push to diversify revenue streams and navigate macroeconomic headwinds. With its portfolio spanning news, digital real estate, and book publishing, News Corp’s performance will hinge on its ability to sustain subscription growth and capitalize on its high-margin assets like The Wall Street Journal and Fox News.

The stakes are high: Analysts have raised their estimates for Q3 2025, citing a 6% year-over-year revenue increase to $4.8 billion, driven by strong subscription and advertising performance. Subscription revenue alone is expected to hit $2.3 billion, up 7% from the prior year, fueled by a 3% rise in digital subscribers to 56 million. These figures underscore the company’s strategic pivot toward recurring revenue models, which now account for over half of its total revenue.

Analyst Forecasts: A Vote of Confidence

Recent analyst revisions highlight optimism around News Corp’s operational discipline. EBITDA is projected to reach $1.6 billion, a 5% annual gain, reflecting cost management and margin improvements. The upward revisions also incorporate gains in advertising revenue, which grew 4% in Q3, driven by event-driven demand and targeted regional campaigns. Notably, the company’s $500 million share repurchase program, announced during the quarter, signals confidence in its cash flow and long-term prospects.

Key Trends to Watch

1. Subscription Momentum: The growth of digital subscribers, particularly in premium content like WSJ+ and HarperCollins’ audiobook offerings, will be critical. A slowdown here could raise concerns about market saturation.
2. Fox News and WSJ Dominance: These two divisions have been stalwarts, but competition in the news space is intensifying. Margins here will indicate whether News Corp can sustain its pricing power.
3. Advertising Resilience: With macroeconomic uncertainty lingering, advertising revenue’s 4% growth must hold steady or improve to support broader confidence in the business.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the positive trajectory, risks loom. Regulatory pressures, particularly in Australia’s media market and U.S. antitrust scrutiny, could complicate operations. Additionally, a weaker global economy might dampen discretionary spending on subscriptions or advertising. Analysts have flagged these as key variables that could temper growth expectations.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for a Digital-First Strategy

News Corp’s Q3 results will serve as a litmus test for its transformation into a subscription-driven media powerhouse. With 3% subscriber growth and $500 million in buybacks, the company is demonstrating financial flexibility and strategic focus. However, sustaining momentum in a volatile environment will require more than just growth metrics—it will demand execution in high-margin segments and resilience against external pressures.

If the earnings beat expectations, investors may see validation of the company’s pivot toward recurring revenue, potentially lifting its valuation relative to peers. Conversely, any stumble could reignite concerns about its ability to compete in a fragmented media landscape. For now, the data points to a company well-positioned—if it can execute. The world will learn soon enough.

This analysis synthesizes publicly available data and third-party estimates as of April 2025. Actual results may vary.