News Corp’s Campaign for Bargaining Code Reform: A Crucial Test for Australian Media’s Future

The Australian news media sector faces a defining moment. With the Albanese Government poised to finalize reforms to the News Media Bargaining Code, news corp has joined forces with peers like Nine Entertainment and Seven West Media to press for urgent fixes to a system increasingly undermined by tech giants. The stakes are high: the outcome could determine whether journalism survives as a viable industry—or becomes a casualty of digital disruption.

The Fragile Foundation of the Existing Code

The 2021 News Media Bargaining Code was designed to address the power imbalance between news publishers and platforms like Google and Meta. Under its terms, platforms must negotiate fair payments for using news content or face arbitration. Initially, it spurred over 30 deals totaling $200 million annually, with Google emerging as the primary contributor. However, the code’s loophole-riddled framework has proven vulnerable. Meta’s abrupt withdrawal from its $70 million annual deals in early 2024 exposed its fatal flaw: platforms could simply walk away, leaving publishers to bear the cost. The result? A 1,000-job loss estimate for the industry, with smaller outlets hardest hit.

The Government’s Backstop: The News Bargaining Incentive

The Albanese Government’s proposed solution—the News Bargaining Incentive—is a financial carrot-and-stick approach. Starting in 2025, digital platforms with Australian revenues exceeding $270 million must either pay a government-mandated charge or negotiate direct deals with publishers. The charge, set above the cost of private agreements, creates a clear incentive to bargain. For News Corp, this is a lifeline: CEO Michael Miller has already signaled intent to re-engage with Meta and TikTok under the new framework.

The stakes extend beyond revenue. If platforms opt for the charge over deals, they risk public backlash and the erosion of goodwill. Conversely, direct agreements could stabilize funding for journalism while avoiding the “news blackout” threat Meta wielded in Canada.

Industry Dynamics: Winners and Losers

The incentive’s success hinges on its design and enforcement. Key questions remain:
- Equity for Smaller Publishers: Will the charge’s proceeds prioritize smaller outlets, or will large conglomerates like News Corp dominate?
- Platform Compliance: Will Google and TikTok accept the framework, or will they follow Meta’s defiance?
- Global Trade Risks: The U.S. has already labeled the code a trade barrier, raising the specter of sanctions.

For investors, the implications are twofold. First, News Corp’s stock performance could reflect market confidence in the reforms:

Second, the broader media sector’s health—measured by advertising revenue, job retention, and editorial quality—will signal whether the Incentive achieves its goal of sustainability.

Risks and Realities

The path ahead is fraught. Meta’s opposition—framing the Incentive as a “subsidy” for publishers—is a red flag. If the charge is too punitive, platforms might reduce news visibility further, harming public access. Conversely, if it’s too lenient, the code’s original purpose crumbles.

Meanwhile, the global context looms large. Canada’s similar Online News Act led Meta to block news sharing entirely, a scenario Australia must avoid. The Albanese Government’s diplomatic balancing act—defending the code while navigating U.S. trade pressures—will be pivotal.

Conclusion: A Necessary, but Unfinished, Fix

The News Bargaining Incentive represents a critical step toward rebalancing the digital economy. For News Corp, the reforms offer a chance to stabilize its revenue streams and reinforce its position as a media leader. However, success demands more than policy: it requires platforms to embrace fair dealing, regulators to enforce rigorously, and the global political climate to cooperate.

With $200 million in annual revenue at stake and thousands of journalism jobs hanging in the balance, the Albanese Government’s actions in 2025 will define not just the future of News Corp, but the survival of public-interest journalism itself. For investors, the test is clear: can the Incentive bridge the gap between profit-driven platforms and a news industry fighting for its life? The answer will shape media’s role in democracy for decades to come.