Newmont Surges 2.6% as Gold Mining Sector Gains Momentum

Summary
• Newmont’s stock (NEM) trades at $77.90, up 2.6% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $78.48.
• Macquarie downgraded NEM to Neutral from Outperform, citing fulfilled investment theses.
• Gold prices and sector-wide production gains drive optimism in mining equities.

Newmont’s sharp intraday rally reflects a confluence of sector-wide tailwinds and strategic execution. With gold prices at record highs and peers like AngloGold Ashanti surging, the gold mining sector is in a bullish phase. NEM’s outperformance—up 44.7% in three months—positions it as a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the sector’s momentum.

Macquarie’s Neutral Call Ignites Short-Term Optimism
Newmont’s 2.6% intraday gain follows Macquarie’s downgrade to Neutral, which paradoxically spurred buying interest. The firm cited NEM’s strategic milestones—portfolio diversification, asset sales, and NCM integration—as having already delivered value. However, the stock’s recent outperformance against peers and the broader market has satisfied the investment thesis, prompting the rating change. Meanwhile, gold prices and sector-wide production gains, including AngloGold’s 169.5% YTD rise, underpin broader optimism. NEM’s strong Q2 2025 results, with $1.43 adjusted EPS driven by higher gold prices, further justify the rally.

Gold Mining Sector Gains as NEM Outperforms Peers
The gold mining sector is experiencing a renaissance, with NEM outpacing the S&P 500 and the Dow. While NEM has surged 44.7% in three months, the Dow has risen just 6.4%. AngloGold Ashanti (AU), a key rival, has posted a 118.1% gain over the past 52 weeks, but NEM’s diversified portfolio and stable operations give it a unique edge. Sector-wide, companies like Kinross Gold and Agnico Eagle are also benefiting from higher gold prices and cost discipline, but NEM’s consistent performance above its 50- and 200-day moving averages highlights its structural strength.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on NEM’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 2.95 (above signal line 2.85), RSI: 87.4 (overbought), Bollinger Upper Band: $78.01 (near current price).
• 200-day MA: $51.78 (far below), 30-day MA: $69.91 (below current price).

NEM’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $78.48 (52-week high) and support at $71.94 (Bollinger Middle Band). The RSI’s overbought level signals potential consolidation, but the MACD’s positive divergence and strong volume suggest momentum remains intact. For leveraged exposure, NEM20250919C77 and NEM20250919C77.5 stand out:

• NEM20250919C77: Call option with 71.43% leverage, 31.30% IV, delta 0.61, theta -0.199, gamma 0.095, turnover 28,542. High leverage and moderate delta make it ideal for a breakout above $78.48. Projected payoff at 5% upside (target $81.80): max(0, 81.80 - 77) = $4.80.
• NEM20250919C77.5: Call option with 99.05% leverage, 29.97% IV, delta 0.56, theta -0.189, gamma 0.102, turnover 7,922. Strong gamma and liquidity ensure responsiveness to price swings. Projected payoff at 5% upside: max(0, 81.80 - 77.5) = $4.30.

Aggressive bulls should target a breakout above $78.48, with a stop-loss below $71.94. These options offer high leverage for a short-term rally, but monitor IV and theta decay as expiration nears.

Backtest Newmont Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-backtest report that evaluates how Newmont (NEM) tends to perform after a ≥ 3 % close-to-close surge, using all occurrences from 1 Jan 2022 through 9 Sep 2025. (Assumption: “3 % intraday surge” is proxied by days where the closing price is ≥ 3 % above the prior close. This definition uses readily available daily data and captures the vast majority of large one-day up-moves.)Key take-aways (high-level):• 70 qualifying surge events were identified in the sample period. • Average excess return vs. benchmark remains positive for most holding windows, peaking near +3.8 % around the 28-30-day mark, but statistical significance is low. • Win rate gradually climbs above 60 % by the fourth trading week, suggesting a mild positive drift following strong up-days, though the edge is modest.Feel free to explore the interactive chart for more detail on daily win rates, cumulative returns and confidence intervals.

NEM’s Rally: A Sector Play with Clear Entry Points
Newmont’s 2.6% intraday surge underscores its role as a bellwether for the gold mining sector. With gold prices at record highs and sector peers like AngloGold Ashanti (AU, +4.34%) surging, the tailwinds are structural. NEM’s technicals and options profile suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, particularly if it breaks above $78.48. Investors should prioritize NEM20250919C77 for leveraged exposure, while watching for a pullback to $71.94 as a potential entry point. The sector’s momentum, combined with NEM’s strategic execution, makes it a compelling play for near-term gains.