Newmont Rallies 3.47% on 6-Day Winning Streak, 17.96% Gains Backed by Bullish Technical Indicators

Newmont (NEM) has rallied 3.47% on the latest session, extending its winning streak to six consecutive days with a cumulative gain of 17.96%. The price action suggests a strong uptrend, with recent highs reaching $93.07 and lows at $89.70. This pattern indicates a potential continuation of bullish momentum, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows over the past two weeks.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price structure displays a series of bullish engulfing patterns, particularly on 2025-11-06 (5.84% gain) and 2025-11-04 (3.46% gain). Key support levels are identified at $78.50 (a prior consolidation zone) and $76.00 (a significant trough in October), while resistance is evident at $93.07 (current high) and $96.36 (a prior peak in October). The absence of bearish reversal patterns like hammers or shooting stars suggests the uptrend remains intact, though a break below $85.00 could trigger short-term corrections.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (calculated at ~$82.50) is well below the 200-day MA (~$63.00), forming a golden cross that signals a strong bullish bias. The 100-day MA (~$78.00) acts as a dynamic support level, with the current price hovering above it. The 200-day MA divergence highlights a long-term trend reversal from bearish to bullish, aligning with the recent surge. A crossover above the 50-day MA would further validate the uptrend, while a retest of the 100-day MA could confirm its role as a floor.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence since mid-October, with the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) crossing above the signal line on 2025-11-06. This suggests sustained momentum. The KDJ oscillator, however, indicates overbought conditions (K-line above 80), raising caution about a near-term pullback. Divergence between the K-line and price action on 2025-11-11 (high of $90.35) and 2025-11-10 (high of $88.86) suggests weakening buying pressure, though the J-line remains elevated, hinting at potential continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in recent sessions, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of $1.50 in late October to $4.00 currently. The price has remained near the upper band since November 4, indicating overbought conditions. A break below the lower band ($85.00–$87.00) would signal a shift in volatility, but the current positioning near the upper band aligns with the bullish trend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged alongside the price rally, with the latest session’s volume (9.69 million shares) exceeding the 30-day average by 30%. This validates the strength of the uptrend. However, the volume on 2025-11-04 (9.92 million shares) coincided with a 3.33% decline, suggesting bearish conviction during prior dips. The recent surge in volume during the 5.84% gain on 2025-11-10 confirms institutional buying, but a drop in volume during the next rally could signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has crossed into overbought territory (>70) since November 4, peaking at 75. This suggests a high probability of a short-term correction. However, the RSI has not yet formed a bearish divergence with price action, implying the uptrend could persist. A close below 60 would indicate weakening momentum, while a retest of the 70 level could confirm a continuation pattern.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the October 17–November 12 rally (low $76.05 to high $93.07) are:

- 38.2% retracement at $84.90

- 50% retracement at $84.56

- 61.8% retracement at $84.21

The price has tested the 50% level multiple times, with a potential bounce expected here. A breakdown below $84.21 would target the 78.4% level at $83.39, aligning with prior support zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of RSI-based overbought signals from 2022 to 2025 reveals a mixed performance: a 64.86% win rate over 30 days but negative returns in shorter timeframes (-0.41% over 3 days, -0.60% over 10 days). This suggests that while overbought conditions often precede corrections, the strong uptrend in NEM has extended holding periods for profits. The 4.92% maximum 30-day return underscores the importance of combining RSI with trend-following indicators like moving averages to filter false signals. Integrating the 50-day MA as a filter (only entering long positions when price is above the MA) could improve the strategy’s alignment with the current bullish bias.