Newmont Plunges 14.85% in Two Days as Bearish Technical Indicators Signal Extended Downtrend

Newmont (NEM) has experienced a sharp correction, falling 11.49% in the most recent session and 14.85% over two consecutive days, marking its most significant decline in over a year. This rapid sell-off, coupled with elevated trading volumes ($2.2 billion on 2026-01-30), suggests heightened bearish momentum. The price action reflects a breakdown from key resistance levels established in late January (e.g., $126.93 on 2026-01-29), with support now likely testing the $112.35–$114.12 range. A breakdown below $111.25 (the January 27 low) could trigger further downside toward $106.89–$104.50, aligning with prior consolidation zones.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action forms a bearish engulfing pattern, with the January 30 candle (a long-bodied bearish candle) engulfing the prior session’s bullish body. This signals strong short-term bearish conviction. Key support levels at $112.35 (January 30 close) and $111.25 (January 27 low) are critical; a breach of $111.25 may validate a continuation of the downtrend. Resistance remains weak at $126.93–$131.95, with no immediate bullish reversal cues observed.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is decisively bearish, as the 50-day MA (currently ~$109.50) has crossed below the 200-day MA (~$113.00), forming a bearish "death cross." The 100-day MA (~$112.00) acts as a dynamic resistance. Price remains below all major moving averages, confirming a medium-term downtrend. A retest of the 200-day MA may trigger a temporary bounce but is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish bias without sustained volume-driven buying.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line (-$2.50) below the signal line (-$1.20), reinforcing bearish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (K=25, D=30) indicates oversold conditions, but the lack of divergence (price still falling while K/D stabilizes) suggests exhaustion rather than a reversal. A close above the 20-day MA ($115.00) would be required to invalidate the bearish scenario.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded sharply, with price near the lower band (-$1.50 deviation from the 20-day SMA). This contraction/expansion pattern suggests short-term overextension. A rebound toward the mid-band (~$114.00) is probabilistic, but sustained bullish follow-through remains unlikely without a volume spike.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent decline, validating the bearish move. However, volume has started to moderate on the January 30 session, hinting at potential exhaustion. If volume remains elevated on further declines, the downtrend may persist; conversely, declining volume could signal a near-term pause.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~28, entering oversold territory. While this may suggest a potential rebound, the RSI has not yet formed a bullish divergence (price lower lows, RSI higher lows). A close above 40 would be required to confirm a short-term recovery, but the broader bearish context (moving averages, MACD) suggests this is more likely a bounce within a downtrend than a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the January 28 high ($131.95) to the January 30 low ($112.35) include 38.2% at $121.10 and 50% at $122.15. A retest of the 38.2% level may find temporary support, but a breakdown below $114.12 (61.8% retracement) would target $108.01–$105.78, aligning with prior consolidation zones.

Confluence of indicators (bearish engulfing pattern, bearish MACD, oversold RSI) suggests a high probability of continued downside toward $106.89–$104.50. However, divergences in volume (declining on recent lows) and RSI (no bullish divergence) imply caution against overextending short positions. Traders should monitor the $112.35 support level and 50-day MA for potential short-covering rallies, though the broader trend remains bearish until a sustained close above $126.93 with rising volume.