Newmont Outlook - Technical Neutrality and Mixed Analyst Signals

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Newmont (NEM) remains in technical neutrality with mixed signals from analysts, while its fundamentals show strong profitability and valuation metrics.

2. News Highlights

• CopAur Minerals Private Placement Success - On May 30, CopAur Minerals raised $505,500 through an oversubscribed non-brokered private placement, boosting industry participation and signaling investor confidence in the metals sector.
• Russel Metals Dividend Announcement - Russel Metals declared a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share, reflecting stable operations and returns to shareholders, though it doesn't directly impact Newmont's performance.
• Aqua Metals Stock Plummets - Aqua Metals stock hit a 52-week low at $0.88 amid market challenges, highlighting sector volatility, though Newmont’s fundamentals appear more resilient.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Ratings: The average rating for Newmont is a 3.50 (simple mean), while the performance-weighted average is 1.96. Analysts show significant dispersion, with Macquarie and RBC Capital offering divergent views. Macquarie has a 100% historical win rate with one "Neutral" rating in the last 20 days, while RBC Capital has a 33% win rate with one "Buy" recommendation.

Price Trend: Newmont's price has risen 4.61% recently, yet market expectations are pessimistic, indicating a mismatch between analyst ratings and current momentum.

Key Fundamental Factors:

• ROE (Return on Equity): 6.43% (internal diagnostic score: 2), indicating moderate profitability.
• Profit-MV (Profit to Market Value): 1.08 (score: 1), showing reasonable alignment between earnings and stock price.
• ROE (Diluted) (%): 12.31% (score: 3), suggesting robust returns even after dilution.
• PS (Price to Sales): 5.82 (score: 2), indicating moderate valuation relative to revenue.
• Revenue-MV (Revenue to Market Value): 0.72 (score: 3), showing strong revenue generation relative to market value.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Newmont’s fund-flow score is 7.91 (internal diagnostic score: good), indicating positive flows across most categories. Small, medium, and large money inflow ratios are all above 0.50, while extra-large flows are slightly below. Large and extra-large investors are showing divergent behavior, with extra-large players trending negatively, while large flows are positive.

Big-money flows: Slightly bearish (block trend: negative, block inflow ratio: 0.49), while retail (small) flows are positive (Small inflow ratio: 0.52), indicating growing retail investor confidence.

5. Key Technical Signals

Newmont's technical analysis shows strong neutrality with no clear bullish or bearish signals. The technical score is 6.41 (internal diagnostic score), with three neutral indicators and no dominant trend.

Recent Indicator Scores:

• Williams %R Overbought: 6.01 (internal diagnostic score), indicating moderate strength but no clear direction.
• RSI Overbought: 6.27 (internal diagnostic score), also showing neutral movement with limited predictive strength.
• Bearish Engulfing Pattern: 6.95 (internal diagnostic score), suggesting a potential reversal signal, though recent signals have only a 75% win rate with an average return of -0.37%.

Recent Chart Patterns: Over the past five days (up to September 17, 2025), Williams %R and RSI Overbought signals were repeated on most trading days. A Bearish Engulfing pattern appeared on September 8, but it has yet to confirm a clear downtrend.

Key Insight: Technical indicators suggest volatility without a clear trend, and investors are advised to monitor market movements closely for a breakout signal.

6. Conclusion

Newmont is in a mixed technical and analyst landscape—with strong fundamentals but conflicting signals from analysts and technical indicators. Retail investors are showing confidence, but big-money flows are mixed. With internal technical neutrality and mixed analyst ratings, a watchful approach is advisable.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer breakout signal or a pullback before initiating a position, especially given the current uncertainty in trend direction.