Newmont NEM Rises 0.97% on Earnings Upgrade Despite 226th Trading Volume Rank

Newmont Corporation (NEM) rose 0.97% on August 22, 2025, with a trading volume of $0.46 billion, ranking 226th in market activity. Analysts highlight recent upgrades in earnings estimates and revenue projections, with the Zacks Consensus forecasting $1.25 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a 54.3% year-over-year increase. The consensus earnings estimate for the fiscal year has risen 11.5% in the past month, though next-year projections show a modest 0.2% decline. Revenue estimates for the current quarter stand at $4.92 billion, up 6.8% year-over-year, while next fiscal year forecasts indicate a 1.4% contraction.

Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" rating and an average score of 2.79 based on eight buy ratings, six holds, and one sell. The stock’s valuation metrics appear favorable, trading at a 12.58 P/E ratio—well below both the S&P 500 average of 28.08 and the Basic Materials sector’s 110.59. A PEG ratio of 0.82 suggests potential undervaluation relative to growth prospects. Institutional ownership remains strong at 68.85%, but insider selling has increased, with recent transactions totaling $1.37 million.

Short interest in NEM has edged up 2.16% month-over-month, with 1.76% of shares sold short. The short interest ratio of 1.6 days to cover is considered neutral, though the trend reflects slightly bearish sentiment. Dividend metrics remain stable, with a 1.45% yield and a sustainable payout ratio of 17.95%. Analysts project the dividend will remain viable, with a 26.32% payout ratio expected for the next fiscal year.

The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) signal aligns with the stock’s recent performance, which has underperformed the broader market. While short-term momentum is supported by revised earnings estimates, long-term challenges include next-year revenue contraction and mixed production trends. Newmont’s focus on Tier 1 assets has led to reduced output from divested non-core operations, impacting its 2025 production guidance.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to now delivered a 0.98% average 1-day return, with a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. The Sharpe ratio of 0.79 indicates favorable risk-adjusted returns, though the maximum drawdown of -29.16% underscores significant downside risk during market downturns.