Newmont Mining (NEM): Impulsive Elliott Wave Rally and Strategic Entry Points for 2026

The gold sector has long been a barometer for macroeconomic uncertainty, and Newmont Mining (NEM), the world's largest gold producer, has emerged as a standout performer in 2025. With gold prices surging and NEM's fundamentals strengthening, the stock has entered a structurally significant bullish phase. This analysis synthesizes Elliott Wave patterns, technical momentum, and structured options strategies to outline a compelling case for NEM in 2026.

Elliott Wave Analysis: A Structured Bull Run

Newmont's price action since 2023 aligns with a textbook Elliott Wave impulse pattern. On the monthly chart, the stock completed a corrective wave ((II)) that bottomed at $12.75, followed by a resumption of the primary uptrend in wave ((III)). Wave (I) of ((III)) pushed NEM to $62.72, while wave (II) retraced to $15.39-a critical support level that has held intact since late 2024. The subsequent wave I of (III) reached $86.37, and as long as $15.39 remains unbroken, the trajectory for wave III of (III) appears intact, with a projected target near $100.00.

On shorter timeframes, the daily chart reveals a similar structure. NEM completed wave II at $37.57 in late 2024, with wave III now underway. Wave (1) of III peaked at $58.72, followed by a retracement to $36.86 in wave (2). A resumption of the uptrend in wave (3) would likely test the 91.50–92 resistance zone, a key inflection point that could validate the broader Wave 3 (grey) structure.

Technical and Fundamental Momentum

NEM's technical indicators reinforce its bullish setup. The stock has traded above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 2025, a hallmark of a sustained uptrend, and its 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA in a "golden crossover" on April 16, 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain in overbought territory, suggesting continued momentum. A recent pullback to $36.86 has been a healthy consolidation phase, tightening price action beneath the 91.50–92 resistance level.

Fundamentally, NEM's performance has been equally robust. The company generated $1.6 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2025, its fourth consecutive quarter exceeding $1.0 billion, enabling aggressive buybacks and dividend payouts. Strategic acquisitions, such as Newcrest Mining Limited, and growth projects like the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, have bolstered its reserve base and operational efficiency. With $9.6 billion in liquidity and $2 billion in debt reduction in Q3 2025, NEM's balance sheet is well-positioned to capitalize on higher gold prices.

Structured Options Strategies: Optimizing Risk-Reward

Given NEM's technical and fundamental strength, structured options strategies can enhance returns while managing risk. A high-probability setup involves a long call position with a 33.5:1 risk-reward ratio. An entry zone at $86.79 targets $95.17, with a stop loss at $86.54. This aligns with the Elliott Wave projection of wave III of (III) advancing toward $100.00. For investors seeking lower-risk entries, a momentum breakout strategy recommends initiating long calls at $91.00, with a target of $94.02 and a stop loss at $90.75.

A hedging strategy for downside protection involves shorting at $94.02, targeting $89.32 with a stop loss at $94.30. This approach balances exposure to NEM's upside potential with safeguards against a breakdown below the critical 74.25 support level. Position sizing and disciplined risk management are critical, as volatility in gold and macroeconomic events in 2026 could amplify price swings.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Technical and Strategic Strength

Newmont Mining's Elliott Wave structure, reinforced by robust technical and fundamental momentum, presents a compelling case for 2026. The stock's alignment with rising gold prices, strong cash flow generation, and strategic operational initiatives positions it to outperform in a high-volatility environment. Structured options strategies, particularly those with asymmetric risk-reward profiles, offer investors a disciplined way to capitalize on this setup. As NEM approaches key resistance at 91.50–92, the coming months will be pivotal in confirming the continuation of its bullish trajectory.