Newmont Gains 3.36% in Three-Day Rally, Extending 9.91% Uptrend with Bullish Technicals

Newmont (NEM) has experienced a notable 3.36% increase in the most recent session, extending a three-day rally with a cumulative gain of 9.91%. This upward momentum suggests a short-term bullish bias, supported by a closing price near the session’s high. Key support levels appear to be consolidating around the $85.14–$87.70 range, while resistance is forming near $91.24–$93.93. A potential bearish reversal pattern, such as a shooting star or evening star, could emerge if the price fails to sustain above $93.58, but the current strong close near the high favors continuation.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all indicate a long-term bullish trend, with the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA in late September 2025. The current price of $93.58 sits well above these averages, reinforcing an uptrend. A pullback to the 200-day MA (~$78.50) would likely trigger a rebound, while a break below the 100-day MA (~$84.00) could signal a short-term correction.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram is expanding in the positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, indicating strong momentum. However, the KDJ indicator shows the %K line approaching overbought territory (~75) after a sharp rally, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. Divergence between MACD and KDJ highlights caution: while momentum remains strong, overbought conditions may precede a retracement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band. This contraction-followed-by-expansion pattern suggests a breakout is underway. If the price remains above the middle band, the uptrend is likely to persist. A close below the lower band would invalidate the short-term bullish case.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, particularly on the 3.36% gain session, validating the price strength. However, volume has moderated slightly in the past two sessions, which may indicate waning momentum. A sustained increase in volume on a pullback would reinforce the trend’s durability.

RSI

The 14-day RSI stands at ~57.9, within neutral territory. However, its trajectory suggests a potential move toward overbought levels (above 70). If the RSI crosses 70, it would signal a cautionary overbought condition, though a strong uptrend can sustain overbought readings for extended periods. Divergence between RSI and price action should be monitored for early reversal signals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 2024–2025 trend (low: $36.86, high: $93.93) include 38.2% at ~$65.00 and 61.8% at ~$78.50. The current price near $93.58 suggests a potential correction toward the 61.8% level, which could act as a support. A break above the $93.93 high would target the $100.00 psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy—buying NEM when RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops below 70—underperformed the benchmark, with a -15.48% return versus the S&P 500’s 47.98% during the 2022–2025 period. This highlights the limitations of using RSI alone for entry/exit decisions in a volatile, fundamentally driven stock like Newmont. The strategy’s poor Sharpe ratio (-0.34) and high volatility (12.96%) further underscore its inefficacy. However, the recent surge in NEM’s price (from $37.22 in 2024 to $93.58 in 2025) suggests that a modified approach—incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation—might capture the trend more effectively.