Newmont's 5.64% Drop Forms Bearish Candle as Key Supports at $97.67 and $94.40 Emerge

Candlestick Theory
Newmont’s recent 5.64% drop forms a long bearish candle, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support levels emerge at $97.67 (recent low) and $94.40 (prior consolidation zone), while resistance aligns with the 105.78–106.34 range. A potential bullish reversal could materialize if the price closes above the 105.78 high, confirming a breakout from the descending channel. Conversely, a breakdown below $97.67 may target $94.40, with a bearish engulfing pattern likely to intensify the downtrend.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $99.00) currently crosses above the 200-day MA ($96.50), suggesting short-term bullish momentum, but the 100-day MA ($98.20) remains below both, indicating a mixed trend.

A confluence of the 50-day MA crossing below the 100-day MA would signal a bearish shift. The 200-day MA acts as a critical psychological level; a sustained close above $96.50 may validate a long-term uptrend, while a retest below $94.40 could confirm a bearish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has contracted, signaling waning momentum, while the KDJ indicator shows the J line (oversold at 25) dipping below the K line, suggesting potential exhaustion in the sell-off. However, the RSI at 30 (oversold) and KDJ divergence hint at a possible bounce. A bullish crossover in MACD and a KDJ golden cross above 50 would strengthen the case for a reversal, but bearish divergence in MACD during rallies could warn of a false recovery.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded as the price touches the lower band at $97.67, indicating oversold conditions. A rebound toward the mid-band ($99.81) is probable, but a sustained close above the upper band ($101.43) would confirm a breakout. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower band may trigger further declines toward $94.40, with the 20% retracement level at $98.14 acting as a key intermediate support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Elevated volume during the 5.64% drop validates the bearish move, but declining volume on follow-through selling could signal exhaustion. A surge in volume during a rally above $99.81 would reinforce bullish conviction, while weak volume during bounces may indicate a lack of buyers. Divergence between volume and price during rallies (e.g., higher highs with lower volume) would raise caution about a bear trap.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI at 30 confirms oversold conditions, but in a strong downtrend, this may persist for weeks. A rebound above 40 would suggest short-term stabilization, while a close above 50 would validate a reversal. However, caution is warranted if the RSI fails to break above 40, as it may indicate the downtrend remains intact.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key retracement levels from the $105.78 high to $97.67 low include 38.2% ($102.10) and 50% ($100.70). A bounce off the 50% level could target $102.10, but a breakdown below the 61.8% level ($99.30) would confirm a deeper correction. A bullish reversal at $97.67 (100% retracement) would require a close above $100.70 to align with Fibonacci confluence.

The analysis highlights confluence between RSI oversold conditions, Bollinger Band contraction, and Fibonacci support at $97.67, suggesting a potential bounce. However, bearish signals from MACD divergence and moving average alignment below key levels caution against premature optimism. Divergences between volume and price during rallies, or between RSI and price action, could foreshadow false breakouts. A sustained close above $100.70 would validate a reversal, while a breakdown below $94.40 would intensify the downtrend. Probabilistically, a 60–70% chance of consolidation near $97.67–$99.81 is estimated, with a 30–40% risk of further decline toward $94.40.