Newmont Soars to 52-Week High on Strategic Divestiture Amid Gold Rally

Summary
• Newmont (NEM) surges 3.88% to $105.22, hitting a 52-week high of $105.59
• Company announces $29.5M sale of Fuerte Metals shares, reducing ownership to 19.5%
• Gold prices climb to record highs amid geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations

Newmont’s intraday rally reflects a confluence of strategic asset management and broader macroeconomic tailwinds. The stock’s 3.88% surge, driven by the Fuerte Metals divestiture and a gold market boom, underscores investor confidence in the company’s capital allocation strategy. With gold prices surging past $4,400 and the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts, NEM’s technicals and fundamentals align for a bullish continuation.

Strategic Divestiture and Gold Market Momentum Drive NEM's Surge
Newmont’s 3.88% intraday gain is fueled by two key catalysts: the $29.5 million secondary offering of Fuerte Metals shares and a record-breaking gold rally. The divestiture reduces NEM’s stake in Fuerte from 24% to 19.5%, signaling a strategic pivot toward core assets. Meanwhile, gold prices have surged 68% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal deficits, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. NEM’s Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) contrasts with Kinross Gold’s 1 (Strong Buy), but its 169.9% annual gain outpaces the industry’s 151.8% rise, reflecting strong operational execution and capital discipline.

Gold Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Kinross Gold Surges 2.89%
The gold sector is in a synchronized upswing, with Newmont’s 3.88% gain outpacing Kinross Gold’s 2.89% rally. Both stocks benefit from gold’s record highs, but NEM’s strategic divestiture and robust free cash flow ($1.6 billion in Q3) provide a structural edge. Zacks Consensus estimates highlight KGC’s 147.1% EPS growth for 2025, but NEM’s 74.1% projection, combined with a 14.89 P/E, suggests undervaluation relative to its peers. The sector’s technical strength is reinforced by central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar.

Options Playbook: NEM20251226C105 and NEM20251226C106 Lead the Charge
• 200-day SMA: $68.12 (well above)
• RSI: 70.25 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.60 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $105.22 vs. upper band $103.71 (oversold)

NEM’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $105.59 (52-week high) and support at $93.14 (20-day SMA). The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays: NEM20251226C105 and NEM20251226C106.

• NEM20251226C105
- Strike: $105 | IV: 34.19% | Leverage: 55.46% | Delta: 0.548 | Theta: -0.5166 | Gamma: 0.0939 | Turnover: 473,796
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($110.48), payoff = $5.48 per share. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5–7% move.
• NEM20251226C106
- Strike: $106 | IV: 33.88% | Leverage: 75.27% | Delta: 0.3286 | Theta: -0.3358 | Gamma: 0.1064 | Turnover: 15,400
- Payoff: At $110.48, payoff = $4.48 per share. High gamma and leverage suit aggressive bulls expecting a breakout.

Aggressive bulls should consider NEM20251226C105 into a test of $105.59 resistance. A close above this level could trigger a retest of the $108–$110 range.

Backtest Newmont Stock Performance
The backtest of NEM's performance following a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 53.24%, the 10-day win rate is 57.49%, and the 30-day win rate is 61.74%, suggesting that NEM tends to experience gains within these time frames. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.67%, which occurred on day 57, indicating that NEM can deliver substantial returns but with some volatility.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Position for NEM's Next Move
Newmont’s rally is underpinned by strategic clarity, gold’s macro tailwinds, and robust technicals. The stock’s 3.88% gain today, coupled with a 54.7% premium above its 200-day SMA, signals a high-probability continuation. Investors should monitor the $93.14 support level and watch for a breakdown below $90 to confirm a reversal. Meanwhile, the sector leader Kinross Gold (KGC) surges 2.89%, but NEM’s valuation and execution edge make it the superior play. Act now: Buy NEM20251226C105 for a 5–7% target or short-term cash-secured puts if $93.14 breaks.