New Zealand Pleads Case With US for No New Tariffs Under Trump

As the US presidential election approaches, New Zealand is bracing for potential changes in trade policies that could significantly impact its economy. The resurgence of what is known as the "Trump Trade" has raised concerns about the possibility of new tariffs being imposed on New Zealand's key export products, such as dairy and meat. In response, New Zealand is actively engaging with the US to plead its case for no new tariffs under a Trump presidency.

The Trump Trade refers to the market phenomenon where investors increasingly believe that Donald Trump may win the upcoming election. This perception is affecting certain industry sectors and financial assets, which are expected to benefit from Trump's policies of lower taxes and less regulation. However, for New Zealand, the potential implications of a Trump victory on its trade relationship with the US are a cause for concern.

New Zealand's trade relationship with the US is robust, with bilateral trade totaling $13.4 billion in 2022. However, the potential imposition of new tariffs on New Zealand's key export products could significantly impact the country's trade balance and economic growth. According to the U.S. Trade Representative's office, New Zealand's exports to the US totaled $4.16 billion in 2022, with dairy and meat products accounting for a substantial portion. A 25% tariff on these products, as proposed by Trump, could increase New Zealand's trade deficit with the US by $1.04 billion, based on 2022 export figures. This would negatively affect New Zealand's overall trade balance and economic growth, as the US is one of its largest export markets.

To mitigate the potential impact of US tariffs, New Zealand is exploring alternative trade agreements and partnerships. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a key opportunity, as it includes 11 countries, representing 13.5% of global GDP. Additionally, New Zealand could strengthen ties with the European Union, which has a significant trade agreement with the US, and explore bilateral agreements with other countries to diversify its trade portfolio.

New Zealand's trade agreements, such as the CPTPP, could help mitigate the potential impact of US tariffs. The CPTPP, which New Zealand is a signatory of, includes 11 countries and accounts for 13.5% of global GDP. By diversifying trade partners and reducing tariffs with these countries, New Zealand can lessen its dependence on the US market and potentially offset any negative effects from US tariffs. Additionally, the CPTPP's provisions for e-commerce and intellectual property protection could further boost New Zealand's trade with other member countries, providing additional resilience against US tariffs.



In conclusion, New Zealand is actively engaged in advocating for no new tariffs under a Trump presidency. By exploring alternative trade agreements and partnerships, such as the CPTPP, New Zealand can mitigate the potential impact of US tariffs and ensure long-term economic stability. The country's trade relationship with the US is robust, but the potential implications of a Trump victory on its trade balance and economic growth are a cause for concern. New Zealand must continue to diversify its trade portfolio and engage with the US to protect its interests in the face of potential trade disruptions.