New Polls Show Harris Is Edging Out Trump In Close Presidential Race

According to multiple media reports, Harris has officially received the nomination for the Democratic presidential candidate in the United States and has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. It seems that everything is on the right track, but the outcome of this year's U.S. election has become increasingly unpredictable.

As Harris is closely following in various polls, the Trump-Harris race has gone to the point where the outcome is now uncertain.

In the national average poll tracked by The Hill and the U.S. election forecasting agency Decision Desk HQ (hereinafter referred to as DDHQ), Harris and Trump are almost on par, with Trump receiving a 47.2% approval rate, while Harris's approval rate is as high as 47.3%.

In the polls conducted jointly by NPR, PBS, and Marist, Harris's support rate has reached 51%, leading Trump by 3% (48%). 2% of respondents have not yet made a decision. The poll surveyed 1513 registered voters from August 1st to 4th, 2024.

It is worth noting that the aforementioned institutions also surveyed July 22nd, the day after Biden announced his withdrawal, with 1117 registered voters. The results showed that Trump led Harris by one percentage point. Therefore, although the latest 3% advantage is still within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, it also indicates that Harris's chances of winning are continuing to expand.

At the same time, the election forecast published by polling expert Nate Silver also showed for the first time that Harris is leading Trump, while Trump's chances of winning have always been at the top. He said last week that the competition is too close to call.

The gap in support rates between states is also narrowing.

DDHQ has tracked the changes in the Democratic Party in 9 out of 10 key states. The agency concluded that compared with before Biden's withdrawal, the state with the largest average change in polls is North Carolina, where Trump's lead has dropped from 10 percentage points to only 3 percentage points.

The gap in other key states is also narrowing, although Trump is still leading in most states that may determine the outcome.

Specifically, since Biden announced his withdrawal, Nevada has only conducted two polls and published the results, but overall, Trump's average lead is 3 percentage points, lower than the 9 percentage points he led before.

In addition, 8 polls in Pennsylvania, and 5 polls in Georgia and Michigan show that Harris's support rate has increased by 2 percentage points, 4 percentage points, and 3 percentage points, respectively.

Overall, Harris's polls in swing states and nationwide have improved.