Neurocrine Biosciences Plummets 5.18% Amid Record Sales and Strategic Expansion—What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) trades at $139.75, down 5.18% intraday, despite Q3 net product sales of $790M (28% YoY growth)
• INGREZZA sales hit $687M (12% YoY), while CRENESSITY launched with $98M in Q3
• Options activity surges, with 179 contracts for the $135 call and 608 for the $150 call
• Technicals show overbought RSI (71.46) and bullish Kline pattern, but price tests lower Bollinger Band support

Neurocrine Biosciences’ stock plunged nearly 5% in volatile trading despite blockbuster third-quarter results. While INGREZZA and CRENESSITY drove record sales, the market’s reaction suggests skepticism about the company’s aggressive R&D spending and pipeline risks. Traders are now parsing technical indicators and options activity to gauge whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

Profit-Taking and Pipeline Skepticism Trigger Sharp Correction
Neurocrine’s 5.18% intraday decline follows a post-earnings rally that pushed the stock to a $144.24 high. The move reflects profit-taking after the company’s Q3 results, which included 28% YoY revenue growth and $209.5M net income. However, the market is pricing in risks tied to the company’s $250M R&D spend for high-stakes Phase 3 trials in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia. Analysts note that while INGREZZA’s 12% YoY growth is strong, its decelerating momentum and 87% revenue concentration raise concerns about long-term sustainability. CRENESSITY’s $98M Q3 sales, though impressive, show flat patient enrollment, hinting at potential bottlenecks in adoption.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technical Breakouts
• MACD: 1.67 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.66, Histogram: 1.01 (expanding)
• RSI: 71.46 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $132.74–$147.34 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $126.77 (price above), 30D MA: $141.25 (resistance ahead)

Neurocrine’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish reversal after a bullish Kline pattern. Key support at $136.88 (30D support) and resistance at $140.04 (middle Bollinger Band) define a tight trading range. The RSI’s overbought condition and MACD’s bullish divergence hint at potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. For options traders, the November 140 put (NBIX20251121P140) and 135 put (NBIX20251121P135) stand out:

• NBIX20251121P140:
- Strike: $140, IV: 55.02%, Delta: -0.4696, Theta: -0.0413, Gamma: 0.020176, Turnover: 3,920
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Theta (rapid time decay), Gamma (price sensitivity)
- This put benefits from high implied volatility and strong delta, making it ideal for a bearish bet if the stock breaks below $136.88. A 5% downside to $132.75 would yield a 85.71% payoff.

• NBIX20251121P135:
- Strike: $135, IV: 45.10%, Delta: -0.3523, Theta: -0.0363, Gamma: 0.022974, Turnover: 5,164
- IV (moderate), Delta (balanced), Theta (moderate decay), Gamma (strong price sensitivity)
- This contract offers a safer play with lower delta but higher gamma, ideal for a mid-term bearish outlook. A 5% drop would yield a 64% payoff.

Action: Aggressive bears should target the $140 put for a short-term play, while cautious traders may use the $135 put as a hedge. Watch for a breakdown below $136.88 to confirm bearish momentum.

Backtest Neurocrine Biosciences Stock Performance

Bullish Fundamentals vs. Bearish Technicals: What’s Next for NBIX?
Neurocrine’s Q3 results underscore its dominance in neuropsychiatric therapies, but the stock’s sharp correction reflects market caution about its high-risk R&D bets. While INGREZZA’s 10% sequential growth and CRENESSITY’s $98M debut are positives, the 28% R&D spend increase raises questions about margin sustainability. Technically, the stock is testing key support levels, with the RSI near overbought territory and Bollinger Bands signaling potential consolidation. Traders should monitor the November 21 options expiry and the company’s R&D Day on December 16 for catalysts. Watch for a breakdown below $136.88 or a breakout above $140.04 to define the next move. Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN)’s 0.52% intraday gain as a sector leader offers a benchmark for broader biotech sentiment.