Netflix at $94: Is This a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity or a Cautionary Bear Market Setup?

Netflix's stock price has retreated to $94 as of November 26, 2025, sparking debate among investors about whether this represents a compelling value play or a warning sign of deeper bearish momentum. With the company's Q4 2025 earnings report scheduled for January 20, 2026, the contrast between its robust fundamentals and mixed technical indicators offers a critical lens for assessing the stock's trajectory. This analysis examines both sides of the equation, weighing Netflix's financial health against its technical profile to determine whether the current price reflects a buying opportunity or a cautionary setup.

Fundamentals: A Story of Resilience and Growth

Netflix's Q3 2025 results underscore its ability to adapt in a competitive streaming landscape. The company reported revenue of $11.51 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, driven by subscriber growth, pricing adjustments, and a record-breaking quarter for its advertising business. Despite a one-time $619 million Brazilian tax charge, which dragged its operating margin to 28%, Netflix's underlying performance was strong. Excluding the charge, the company would have exceeded margin expectations.

Looking ahead, Netflix has provided optimistic guidance for Q4 2025, forecasting revenue between $12.0 billion and $12.0 billion-a 16.7% year-over-year increase-and full-year revenue of $45.1 billion. The advertising segment, in particular, is on track to more than double its revenue in 2025, supported by U.S. upfront commitments that doubled year-over-year. Additionally, the company is investing heavily in live events, gaming, and AI-driven innovations to diversify its revenue streams and enhance user engagement.

These fundamentals suggest a business that is not only weathering macroeconomic headwinds but also positioning itself for long-term growth. However, the question remains: Can these strengths translate into a rebound in the stock price, or will technical headwinds continue to weigh on investor sentiment?

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Narrative with Oversold Cues

From a technical perspective, Netflix's stock has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating between $1,100 and $1,130 earlier in November 2025 before retreating to $94. At this price level, key indicators paint a mixed picture. The 50-day moving average stands at $109.90, significantly above the current price, signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index is at 32.72, entering oversold territory, which historically suggests a potential reversal or correction.

However, other indicators reinforce a bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence and stochastic oscillator are aligned in a "Sell" signal, indicating continued downward pressure. The stock has also broken below critical support levels, with Fibonacci retracement targets pointing to further declines toward $89, $72.3, and $60. Volume on recent price rises has been weak, suggesting low conviction among buyers.

While the oversold RSI could hint at a short-term rebound, the broader technical landscape-marked by a breakdown below key moving averages and Fibonacci levels-suggests that the bearish trend may persist until a clear breakout above $1,130.99 occurs.

Earnings as a Catalyst: What to Watch

Netflix's upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report on January 20, 2026, could serve as a pivotal catalyst. The company has forecasted an EPS of $5.45 for the quarter, a figure that, if met, would demonstrate resilience despite the Brazilian tax dispute. Investors will also scrutinize the advertising business's performance, as its success in doubling revenue could validate Netflix's strategic pivot toward monetizing its content through ads.

However, technical indicators suggest that even strong earnings may face an uphill battle in reversing the stock's bearish momentum. A breakout above $1,130.99 would be necessary to rekindle bullish sentiment, while a continued slide toward Fibonacci support levels could deepen the bear case.

Conclusion: A Tug-of-War Between Value and Momentum

The $94 price point presents a classic dilemma for investors: a fundamentally sound company trading at a discount versus a technical profile that suggests further downside. On one hand, Netflix's revenue growth, advertising expansion, and strategic investments in live events and AI position it as a long-term winner in the streaming wars. On the other, the stock's technical indicators-particularly its breakdown below key moving averages and Fibonacci levels-highlight a market that remains skeptical of a near-term recovery.

For value-oriented investors, the current price may represent an opportunity to buy into a business with strong growth prospects, provided they are prepared to weather short-term volatility. For technical traders, the bearish signals and lack of conviction in buying activity suggest caution until a clear reversal occurs. Ultimately, the upcoming Q4 earnings report will be critical in determining whether Netflix's fundamentals can overcome its technical headwinds-or if the bear market setup will prevail.