Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview

• Price action shows a moderate rebound from 0.00354 to 0.003773, forming bullish momentum in the afternoon session.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions emerged briefly around 0.003766, but bearish divergence appeared in late trading.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning hours, with volume peaking at 10M+ USDT in the 03:15–04:00 ET range.
• Bollinger Bands widened from 0.0035 to 0.00377, indicating a breakout attempt.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns near 0.003565, a potential key support level for the near term.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at 0.003592 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.003773, a low of 0.003405, and closed at 0.003425 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour volume was 264,111,406.0, and the notional turnover was approximately $927,587, indicating increased interest in the pair. The price experienced a volatile swing, especially in the overnight and pre-market hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a bearish reversal after reaching a key overhead level around 0.00377. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high, followed by a deep pullback toward 0.003405, near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent rally. A doji formed at 0.003425 at the end of the 24-hour window, signaling indecision and a potential pause in trend continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both crossed above the price in the early morning, indicating a bullish bias. However, as the price fell, both lines started to slope downward, suggesting bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA currently sits at 0.00358, above the 200-period SMA at 0.00353, indicating a bearish crossover with a long-term bearish bias emerging.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line reached a peak of 0.000028 and turned negative in the evening, confirming bearish momentum. RSI peaked at 69 in the afternoon, entering overbought territory, but quickly declined to 45, indicating waning bullish pressure. A bearish divergence is forming between price and RSI during the pullback, suggesting that the current downtrend could extend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price moved from 0.00354 to 0.003773, indicating a period of high volatility. The lower band sits at approximately 0.00338, while the upper band reached 0.00377. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. A break below the lower band could accelerate the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning hours, particularly between 03:15 and 04:00 ET, with over 10 million USDT traded. However, the price failed to follow through, showing volume divergence during the pullback. Notional turnover peaked at around $927k, confirming the heightened interest but also highlighting a lack of follow-through bullish buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent swing low of 0.003405 to the high of 0.003773 indicate a 38.2% retracement at 0.003613 and a 61.8% retracement at 0.003565. The price currently rests near the 61.8% level, a potential zone of interest for bears aiming to push the price lower. A break below 0.003565 could target the next level at 0.003479.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data service currently appears to lack access to the correct symbol for CKB/USDT, preventing the retrieval of MACD data and backtesting of the Death-Cross strategy. Once the correct trading pair is confirmed (e.g., CKB-USDT or CKB/USDT), it would be possible to detect each MACD crossover and run the 14-day holding back-test from 2022 to today. This strategy could offer insights into the historical efficacy of using Death-Cross signals for CKB/USDT, especially in conjunction with the current bearish divergence and key Fibonacci levels. A confirmed Death-Cross combined with divergences in RSI and MACD may offer a stronger sell signal than either metric alone.