Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview

• Price for Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) rose 2.8% in 24 hours, closing near a key resistance level.
• Volume increased sharply during early ET trading, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI near overbought territory suggests a potential pullback could be imminent.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating growing volatility in the short term.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed after a mid-day correction, signaling renewed buyer interest.

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.004121 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004241 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of $0.004352 and a low of $0.004067 within the 24-hour window. Total volume was 175,629,179 CK, with a notional turnover of approximately $734,635 (CKBUSDT).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a clear bullish engulfing pattern around 08:00 ET, confirming a reversal from a mid-day pullback. Key support levels are identified at $0.004165 and $0.004100, with resistance forming at $0.004280 and $0.004352. A doji formed at the high of the session at $0.004352, suggesting short-term indecision at recent highs. The 15-minute chart shows a well-defined bullish flag pattern following a sharp 3.5% rally from 15:30 ET to 18:30 ET, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish bias.

Structure Summary

Price action suggests a strong shift from bearish pressure to bullish control after a key support level at $0.004165 held. Resistance at $0.004280 could trigger a pullback if not decisively broken. Traders may watch for a break above $0.004352 to confirm a new uptrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are aligned and rising, supporting the current bullish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-day and 100-day SMAs converging with the 200-day SMA slightly above, suggesting that while the trend is positive, long-term bearish forces remain in play. A crossover above the 100-day SMA could signal a more sustained move higher.

MA Implications

The 20/50 MA crossover on the 15-minute chart confirms the short-term bullish bias. However, the 50-day SMA lagging behind the 100-day SMA on the daily chart suggests that while the short-term trend is positive, the broader market context remains neutral to bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a bullish crossover early in the session and remained positive throughout, with the histogram expanding during the morning rally. The RSI reached 69.5 at the session high, entering overbought territory, but remained above 60 for much of the 24-hour period. This suggests continued buying pressure despite a potential overbought condition. A drop below 55 could indicate a near-term correction.

Momentum Summary

Momentum remains firmly bullish in the short term, supported by the MACD and reinforced by RSI staying above 50. However, the overbought RSI reading suggests traders may brace for a pullback or consolidation before the next leg higher.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the morning hours following a consolidation period. Price remained above the middle band and tested the upper band at $0.004352. This suggests increased volatility and strong conviction from buyers. A retest of the lower band could happen if the RSI drops below 55 and the MACD turns bearish.

Volatility Implications

The widening of the Bollinger Bands confirms a breakout has occurred, and price remains within the upper half of the band. Traders may use the lower band at $0.004200 as a potential support level for further bullish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning session (ET), peaking with a 15-minute candle at 03:45 ET that showed $0.00429 as the high and recorded 13,177,780 CK in volume, the highest of the day. This volume confirmed the breakout above $0.004280. In contrast, the afternoon saw a drop in volume, but price remained above key support levels. Notional turnover also peaked in the early hours, with the highest turnover occurring at the same time as the peak volume.

Volume Summary

Volume and turnover data are aligned with the bullish price action, confirming the validity of the breakout. However, the drop in volume in the afternoon suggests a potential pause or consolidation period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 15-minute swing high at $0.004352 to the swing low at $0.004100 show key levels at 38.2% ($0.004235) and 61.8% ($0.004280). Price found support at the 38.2% level before rallying further, and the 61.8% level was confirmed as a key resistance on the daily chart. A break above 61.8% could trigger a retest of the 100% level at $0.004402.

Fib Implications

The 61.8% Fibonacci level is a critical area to watch, as a confirmation above it would validate a more extended bullish trend. The 38.2% level appears to have acted as a dynamic support and may now serve as a pivot for further bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a bullish breakout strategy targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a stop loss below the 38.2% level. Entering on a confirmed breakout and exiting on a close below the 38.2% retracement would balance risk and reward, with an approximate 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. A trailing stop could be used to lock in profits during extended bullish moves. The 15-minute MACD and RSI could serve as confirmatory signals for entries and exits.