Nervos Network/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-06)

Summary
• Price drifted down from 0.003063 to 0.003057 over 24 hours, ending near the 12:00 ET session low.
• Volume surged during late-night hours, particularly between 03:00–06:00 ET, signaling increased participation.
• Momentum indicators showed a shift from overbought to neutral, suggesting potential consolidation.
• Volatility expanded through the session, especially during the 04:00–06:00 ET and 13:00–15:00 ET periods.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.003113–0.003092 between 19:45–20:00 ET, hinting at bearish pressure.

CKBUSDT opened at 0.003045 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded as high as 0.003158 and as low as 0.002973 during the 24-hour period. The price closed at 0.003057 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 143,115,603.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $438,530.

Structure & Formations

Price action on CKBUSDT demonstrated a bearish bias as the session progressed, particularly after a failed attempt to break above the 0.003113–0.003130 resistance zone. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:00 ET, signaling a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. Intraday support was observed at 0.003070 and 0.003045, both of which held multiple times during the session. A bullish harami pattern was noted briefly around 06:45–07:00 ET, but it failed to confirm with follow-through buying, reinforcing bearish control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly during the overnight hours, with price action closing below both. This suggests continued short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period MA, though the 200-period MA has yet to confirm the downward trend, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover during the early morning hours, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram declining in size. RSI moved from overbought territory around 0.003120–0.003130 to neutral levels by the close, reaching a low of 39.5. This suggests the bears have taken control after an earlier overbought condition. A divergence was observed between price and RSI during the 14:45–15:00 ET period, indicating a potential reversal or pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based backtest strategy aims to exploit overbought and oversold conditions. Given the recent price action on CKBUSDT, a backtest using RSI thresholds (e.g., overbought at 70, oversold at 30) could be applied with daily closing price data. While the automated RSI data for “HOLD.P” was unavailable due to symbol recognition issues, a comparable approach using raw OHLC data from CKBUSDT is feasible. By calculating RSI values directly from the 15-minute OHLC series, the strategy can be tested for signal generation, particularly in identifying mean-reversion opportunities during intraday volatility. The success of the strategy hinges on accurate RSI calculation and timing of entry/exit points based on overbought/oversold signals.