Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) Market Overview

Summary• Price action remained in a tight consolidation pattern for much of the session but saw a sharp upward move in late ET hours.• Momentum indicators suggest a potential overbought condition as RSI surged past 60 and MACD registered a positive crossover.• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, indicating increasing market interest and potential for further direction.

Opening Narrative

Nervos Network/Tether (CKBUSDT) opened at $0.003211 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and traded between $0.003132 and $0.003367, closing at $0.003237 on 2025-11-13 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 192.6 million, with a notional turnover of $619.8 thousand.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple indecision candles and small-bodied patterns such as doji and spinning tops in the morning, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged late in the session, which could signal a reversal or continuation depending on context. Key support was identified near $0.003197, while resistance emerged near $0.003296 and $0.003355.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remains above the 200-period SMA, but the 100-period is closing in, indicating a potential shift in trend. Price may consolidate around these averages before testing the $0.003300 psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the late session, confirming a bullish momentum shift. RSI reached 70 by the close, indicating overbought conditions and a potential for a near-term pullback. However, if volume confirms this surge, the price could continue higher.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after a contraction in the early part of the session. The bands are wide, with price near the upper band at close, suggesting a continuation of the upward move is likely. A test of the $0.003367 high appears imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late ET session, aligning with the price breakout and confirming the move higher. Notional turnover also increased sharply, indicating strong participation from both retail and institutional players. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the move is genuine and supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low at $0.003156 and swing high at $0.003367, key levels to watch are $0.003262 (38.2%) and $0.003213 (61.8%). The 61.8% retracement level appears to offer strong support, and a rebound from this area could lead to a retest of the upper band and $0.003367 resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the strategy, a backtesting approach could be designed using the recent RSI and MACD dynamics observed. For example, setting the RSI period to 14 and overbought threshold to 70 aligns with today’s momentum. A buy signal could be triggered when RSI crosses above 70, with a stop-loss of –3% and take-profit at +3%. Using daily close prices for CKBUSDT would provide a robust dataset for evaluating trade signals. This approach would help validate the current bullish momentum and assess its viability for a structured trading strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13.