Neogen (NEOG) Surges 32.45% on Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance – What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• Neogen (NEOG) rockets 32.45% intraday, trading at $9.775 as of 19:51 ET
• Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.10 beats estimates by 50%, revenue of $224.7M tops forecasts by 7.2%
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $850M midpoint, EBITDA outlook lifted to $175M

Neogen’s explosive move has captivated traders as the life sciences firm defies a broader market slump. With a 32.45% intraday surge, the stock has erased 27% of its 52-week decline and now trades 36.2% above its 2026 opening price. The rally follows a 'beat and raise' quarter marked by record EBITDA and a strategic pivot under new leadership, sparking renewed investor optimism.

Q4 Earnings Beat and Optimistic Guidance Drive Neogen’s Record Rally
Neogen’s 32.45% surge stems from a Q4 performance that far exceeded expectations. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.10 (50% above estimates) and revenue of $224.7M (7.2% beat), despite a 2.8% year-over-year sales decline. CEO Mike Nassif highlighted progress in integrating Petrifilm and optimizing manufacturing, while the raised full-year guidance to $850M revenue and $175M EBITDA signaled confidence in overcoming tariff and margin pressures. This 'convincing beat and raise' narrative, coupled with a 19.8% post-earnings pop, has reignited speculative fervor.

Healthcare Equipment & Supplies Sector Mixed as Neogen Outperforms Sector Leader Thermo Fisher (TMO)
While Neogen’s 32.45% rally stands out, the broader Healthcare Equipment & Supplies sector remains fragmented. Sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO) fell 0.50% intraday, contrasting Neogen’s performance. Recent sector news highlights innovations in AI-driven diagnostics and surgical robotics, but Neogen’s outperformance reflects its unique focus on food safety and animal health, where demand for its diagnostic solutions appears resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Neogen’s Volatility with High-Leverage Calls
• Technical Indicators: RSI: 60.76 (neutral), MACD: 0.25 (bullish), 200D MA: $5.91 (far below current price)
• Key Levels: Support at $9.115 (intraday low), resistance at $10.24 (intraday high)
• Short-Term Outlook: Strong bullish momentum with RSI near midpoint and MACD above signal line. Bollinger Bands show price at 7.5% above middle band, suggesting overbought but not extreme conditions.

Top Options Picks:
• NEOG20260116C10 (Call, $10 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 72.61% (high)
- Delta: 0.4469 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.3548 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Theta: -0.0430 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: $41,359 (liquid)
- Leverage: 27.93% (high)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($10.26): $1.26/share (340% gain on delta-adjusted basis). This contract offers explosive potential if the rally extends beyond $10.24 resistance.

• NEOG20260417C10 (Call, $10 strike, Apr 17 expiry):
- IV: 51.55% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5369 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.1506 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0070 (slow time decay)
- Turnover: $407,317 (highly liquid)
- Leverage: 9.78% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($10.26): $1.26/share (230% gain on delta-adjusted basis). This longer-dated option balances time decay with leverage, ideal for a measured bullish stance.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize NEOG20260116C10 for a short-term breakout play, while NEOG20260417C10 suits those expecting sustained momentum. Both contracts benefit from Neogen’s elevated volatility and strong gamma, amplifying returns in a bullish scenario.

Backtest Neogen Stock Performance
The backtest of NEOG's performance after a 32% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.14% during the backtest period, with a maximum return day on January 1, 2026, the overall trend was negative, with a 30-day return of -2.85% and a 10-day return of -0.46%. The 3-day win rate was 45.67%, indicating that the stock had a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, but this did not translate into significant long-term gains.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside – Position for Neogen’s Next Move
Neogen’s 32.45% surge is underpinned by a compelling 'beat and raise' narrative and strategic clarity under new leadership. With RSI at 60.76 and MACD above zero, the technical outlook remains bullish, though traders should monitor the $9.115 support level. The stock’s outperformance against sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO, -0.50%) highlights its unique catalysts. Investors should consider NEOG20260417C10 as a core position if the stock holds above $9.115, while short-term traders may target NEOG20260116C10 for a breakout above $10.24. This is a high-conviction trade with clear technical and fundamental tailwinds.