Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $6.479 to a low of $6.252 amid bearish momentum and diverging volume.
• Key support at $6.31–$6.32 and resistance near $6.40–$6.45 were tested multiple times with failed breakouts.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum, with RSI trending into oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during price drop, indicating increased volatility in the final 15-minute interval.
• Volume surged during the $6.252 low, but price failed to follow through higher, signaling weak conviction.

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) opened at $6.333 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at $6.267 on 2025-10-04 at 06:30 ET. The 24-hour range was $6.376 to $6.479 with a final close of $6.258. Total volume reached 68053.98, and notional turnover hit approximately $433,384.18.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period reveals a bearish trend with multiple attempts to rally from the $6.32–$6.34 support range. Notable bearish formations include a long lower shadow near $6.317 and a key inside bar at $6.35–$6.37, suggesting short-term exhaustion. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $6.40–$6.393 level, reinforcing pressure to retest the $6.31–$6.32 key support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are trending lower, with the 20SMA at $6.385 and the 50SMA at $6.397, indicating bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50DMA at $6.38, 100DMA at $6.41, and 200DMA at $6.45 show a bearish divergence, with price currently below all key moving averages, highlighting the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD has moved below the signal line with a bearish crossover confirmed near $6.385. RSI has fallen to oversold territory at 28–32 in the final 15 minutes, but has not confirmed a strong rebound. Momentum appears to be fading, with RSI lines failing to break above 40 in the last three hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the final 90 minutes of the 24-hour period, signaling increased volatility. Price closed just below the lower band at $6.258, indicating bearish pressure and a possible short-term bounce toward the $6.27–$6.28 zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged near the $6.252 low at 68,053.98, but price failed to close above $6.27, signaling weak follow-through. Turnover confirmed the bearish divergence, with increased notional value during the decline. A divergence between volume and price action suggests further downward momentum is possible.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels were active around the 38.2% retracement at $6.36 and 61.8% at $6.32, with price failing to hold above $6.36. Daily retracements from the $6.393 high to $6.317 low show key levels at $6.368 (38.2%) and $6.336 (61.8%), both of which were broken during the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest could focus on bearish breakout signals from the $6.32–$6.33 support zone with confirmation from RSI and Bollinger Bands. A strategy entering short at a close below $6.32 with a stop above $6.36 and a target at $6.27 could be evaluated. The MACD bearish crossover and volume confirmation near $6.252 provide a high-probability setup for further testing in similar market conditions.