Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined by 2.9% from $5.765 to $5.634 over 24 hours.
• Sharp bearish momentum accelerated after 19:00 ET, dropping to a 24-hour low of $5.593.
• Volume surged over $61,000 at 17:30 ET during a key selloff.
• RSI showed oversold conditions by 21:45 ET, hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before a sharp expansion, signaling increased volatility.

Neo/Tether (NEOUSDT) traded in a bearish range today, opening at $5.765 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closing at $5.634 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $5.771 and the low was $5.593. Total trading volume reached 317,260.09 NEON and notional turnover amounted to approximately $1.77 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a clear bearish bias after 19:00 ET, with a strong breakdown below key support at $5.632. This level acted as resistance earlier in the session but failed to contain selling pressure in the late ET hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00–19:15 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A long lower shadow at 09:30–09:45 ET suggests a temporary rejection of lower levels, but the price quickly resumed its decline. A notable doji appeared at 21:45 ET near $5.593, pointing to a potential short-term oversold condition.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with the price consistently below both. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA in late ET hours, reinforcing the bearish trend. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA (not calculated here due to limited data) is expected to act as a critical resistance level if the price approaches it. The 200-period MA has held as a long-term support area around $5.50, but current momentum suggests the price may test this level next.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout the day, confirming the bearish momentum with a strong bearish crossover at 17:30 ET. The RSI dipped below 30 twice—first at 21:45 ET and then at 10:15 ET—indicating oversold conditions. However, these readings failed to trigger a sustained rally, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion or strong short-term selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted sharply between 19:00–20:00 ET, signaling a period of consolidation before the price broke out to the downside. The subsequent expansion of the bands reflected heightened volatility. Price action remained below the middle band for most of the session, with a temporary close above it at 09:30–09:45 ET. This suggests a potential bounce could be in play if the price holds above $5.62.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 17:30 ET with a 61,462.19 NEON trade, coinciding with a sharp decline from $5.618 to $5.630. This was a key bearish confirmation. Turnover increased in tandem with the price drop, particularly between 19:00–21:00 ET. However, a divergence appeared after 22:00 ET, as the price continued to fall but volume declined, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels were drawn from the high at $5.771 to the low at $5.593. The 38.2% retracement level at $5.654 and 61.8% at $5.626 were both tested during the rebound in the early morning hours. The price failed to hold above $5.626 and reversed lower, suggesting that these retracements are not providing sufficient support in the current bearish environment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when the price breaks below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, especially when confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover. Stops could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.626, with targets set at $5.575 and beyond. Long entries could be considered if the price closes above the 20-period MA with volume confirmation and a bullish reversal pattern, though current momentum suggests this is less likely in the near term.