Is Neo (NEO) Entering a High-Probability Bull Phase in 2025?

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is a theater of volatility, but for those who look beyond the noise, patterns emerge that suggest clarity in chaos. Neo (NEO), a foundational Layer 1 blockchain, has long been a sleeper in the altcoin space. Yet, recent technical and on-chain signals indicate a potential inflection point. Could this be the moment when Neo transitions from a speculative asset to a breakout contender?

Fractal Patterns: A Blueprint for Breakouts

Technical analysis of Neo's price action reveals a compelling narrative. The asset has completed a complex W-X-Y-X-Z corrective structure, bottoming near $4.30 before stabilizing above $5. This stabilization has occurred within a wide demand zone ($4.90–$5.70), a critical area where buyers have historically stepped in. The price is now testing the upper bounds of a descending wedge, a pattern often preceding sharp upward moves.

A falling wedge dominates the macro view, while the microstructure shows an impulsive rise followed by a clean ABC correction. This dual perspective suggests growing bullish momentum. Crucially, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown bullish divergence, with the indicator rebounding from oversold territory to above 60—a sign that sellers are exhausting their pressure.

Intraday charts add further weight to the case. From April 7 to April 10, Neo executed a five-wave impulsive move, followed by a textbook ABC correction that found support near $5. This aligns with the Elliott Wave model, suggesting wave 3—a powerful impulsive phase—is now in motion. A breakout from the local descending trendline reinforces the idea that the corrective phase has ended, with higher lows indicating a potential new impulsive wave.

Key resistance levels to watch include $6.51 (horizontal resistance), $7.20 (Fibonacci target zone), and beyond $10.21 and $11.81 if the ascending triangle and daily EMA200 are breached. A move above $6.51 would confirm a breakout from the macro structure, signaling the start of a new bullish cycle.

On-Chain Accumulation: The Silent Bullish Signal

While technical patterns provide a roadmap, on-chain data offers a glimpse into the psychology of market participants. As of August 2025, approximately 80.65 million NEO tokens are held outside exchanges, a stark contrast to the 2.69 million on exchanges. This suggests a shift from speculative trading to long-term holding—a bullish sign for price discovery.

Transaction volume has surged by 22.4 million NEO in the last 24 hours, reflecting increased network activity. Active addresses, though not quantified, are rising, indicating growing user participation. The age consumed metric—a measure of token movement after long dormancy—has also spiked, hinting at potential selling pressure. However, the fact that large holders are accumulating in the $3.90–$4.50 range—a historically significant support zone—suggests they are positioning for a rebound.

Moreover, the Fear and Greed Index stands at 53, a neutral reading that avoids the extremes of euphoria or panic. This suggests a market in transition, where cautious optimism is replacing bearish sentiment.

Ecosystem Catalysts: Beyond the Charts

Technical and on-chain signals are not the only drivers. Neo's ecosystem is undergoing a renaissance. The recent Anti-MEV Audit for Neo X's ZK DKG protocol by Hacken has cleared a major hurdle for a MEV-resistant sidechain, addressing a critical security concern. This development is expected to attract developers from Ethereum and Solana, potentially spurring a reinvigoration of the Neo ecosystem.

The migration to Neo N3, while introducing short-term liquidity risks, is a long-term strength. By consolidating activity within the updated framework, the platform is positioning itself for scalability and functionality. Additionally, Neo's partnership with ChainGPT has reignited interest in its AI-driven smart contract tools, a sector poised for explosive growth in 2025.

Investment Implications and Risk Management

For investors, the confluence of fractal patterns, on-chain accumulation, and ecosystem upgrades presents a compelling case. However, caution is warranted. A breakdown below the $5.00 support zone would invalidate the immediate bullish setup, potentially dragging the price toward $4.80. Traders should monitor the $6.51 level closely, using tight stop-losses and scaling into positions as the price consolidates within the demand zone.

Long-term holders might consider accumulating at key support levels, while short-term traders could target the $6.39–$6.47 range for entries, with $7.00 and $10.21 as potential targets. The fractal watch zone for wave 3 extension ($7.20–$8.50) and long-term projections beyond $115.28 (if macro conditions turn risk-on) offer a multi-leg bullish expansion scenario.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Signals

Neo's technical and on-chain data paint a picture of an asset on the cusp of a breakout. The fractal patterns suggest a trend reversal, while on-chain accumulation indicates growing confidence among long-term holders. Ecosystem upgrades and strategic partnerships add a layer of fundamental support.

For investors, the key is to balance optimism with discipline. The $6.51 level is a critical juncture—confirmation here could unlock a new phase of growth. In a market where volatility is the norm, Neo's current setup offers a rare blend of technical strength, on-chain conviction, and ecosystem momentum. As the saying goes, “The trend is your friend”—and for Neo, the trend may just be turning bullish.