Nebius Q1 Preview: A Sleeping Giant Set To Awaken In 2026

The AI revolution is reshaping global technology infrastructure, and few companies are positioned to capitalize on this shift as boldly as Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS). With its Q1 2025 financial results due May 20, investors will get a critical glimpse into whether this Dutch-based AI infrastructure giant is on track to fulfill its audacious ambitions. Let’s dissect the data and strategy that could make 2026 a breakout year for Nebius—and why its recent struggles might be a fleeting overhang.

The Foundation: Explosive Growth Amid Growing Pains

Nebius’s Q4 2024 results were a study in duality. Revenue soared 466% year-over-year to $37.9 million, driven by a 602% surge in its core AI infrastructure business. This growth reflects the surging demand for specialized AI compute power, a market Nebius is aggressively dominating with its hyperscale cloud platforms and NVIDIA GPU-optimized data centers. Yet, losses remain stark: an adjusted EBITDA loss of $75.5 million and a net loss of $136.6 million highlight the challenges of scaling infrastructure at speed.

While these figures may spook short-term investors, they are consistent with the high-risk, high-reward playbook of a company in its scaling phase. Nebius’s strategy is clear: prioritize revenue capture and market share over profitability in the near term, betting that economies of scale and operational efficiencies will eventually turn the tide.

2026: The Year of Infrastructure Payoffs

The company’s roadmap for 2026 hinges on three pillars: global infrastructure expansion, product differentiation, and strategic partnerships.

1. Infrastructure as an Engine:
   Nebius’s first U.S. data center in Kansas City, Missouri—launched in late Q1 2025—will house thousands of NVIDIA Hopper GPUs, with capacity to scale to 40MW (supporting ~35,000 GPUs). By 2026, the deployment of 22,000+ NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs across U.S. and Finnish data centers will further solidify its position as a go-to provider for large-scale AI training.

1. Product Innovation at Scale:
   Its AI Studio platform now supports vision models and LLMs like DeepSeek R1, while the serverless Tracto.ai platform is being expanded to handle even more compute-intensive workloads. These tools are not just incremental upgrades—they position Nebius as a one-stop shop for developers and enterprises, reducing reliance on generic cloud providers like AWS or Azure.

2. Revenue Milestones:
   Nebius has reaffirmed its $750 million to $1 billion ARR goal by December 2025, which, if achieved, would set a strong base for 2026 growth. For context, its Q4 2024 ARR was approximately $150 million—a 5x increase in less than two years.

Navigating the Competition and Risks

Nebius faces stiff competition from cloud giants like AWS and Google Cloud, which have deeper pockets and established customer bases. However, its hyperscale AI-specific infrastructure and proprietary tools—such as its NVIDIA-preferred status and tailored developer platforms—create a defensible moat.

The key risks remain profitability and cash burn. Full-year 2024 losses hit $396.9 million in net loss and $319.6 million in operating cash outflow, underscoring the need for disciplined cost management. Yet, the company’s focus on operational leverage—such as utilizing its own in-house hardware and software—could reduce long-term costs.

Investment Implications: A Buy-the-Dip Opportunity?

Analysts project a 12-month stock price target of $55.00 (54.56% upside from the $33.90 price at the time of writing), citing long-term AI infrastructure demand. The recent dip—over 10% post-Q4 results—may be a buying opportunity for investors willing to look past short-term losses.

The upcoming Q1 2025 results will be pivotal. Strong revenue growth and progress toward its $750M ARR target could validate its growth narrative, while any stumble might reignite concerns about execution. Beyond 2025, catalysts in 2026 include the Kansas City data center’s full ramp-up, broader adoption of its AI Studio, and potential partnerships in autonomous driving (via Avride) and edtech (via TripleTen).

Conclusion: A Giant’s Ascent

Nebius’s 2026 story is one of inevitability—if it executes. With AI infrastructure spending projected to hit $300 billion annually by 2027 (per IDC), the company is well-positioned to capture a meaningful share. Its Q4 2024 revenue growth of 466%, aggressive data center expansions, and $55 analyst target all suggest that 2026 could be the year Nebius transitions from a “story stock” to a profit-driven AI infrastructure leader.

Investors should monitor Q1 2025 results for signs of momentum, but the bigger picture is clear: in a world hungry for AI compute power, Nebius is not just a player—it’s a sleeping giant about to wake.